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Infection, invasion, and inflation: Recent lessons

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  • Aharon, David Y.
  • Qadan, Mahmoud

Abstract

We examine the relationship between the ex-post inflation rates in the G7 countries, using a connectedness approach. Results obtained through both static and dynamic analyses confirm the US (Italy) as the main transmission (absorption) channel for inflation. Our dynamic analysis shows that the magnitude of inflation spillovers peaked during earlier market crises such as the 2008 subprime-crisis and the 2011 European debt-crisis. High level of connectedness is also witnessed during COVID-19 period and particularly surged due to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. The results may be important for corporate and national policymakers, seeking for monitoring and mapping the evolution of inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Aharon, David Y. & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2022. "Infection, invasion, and inflation: Recent lessons," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:50:y:2022:i:c:s1544612322004901
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103307
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    Cited by:

    1. Aharon, David Y. & Azman Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf & Kallir, Ido, 2023. "Oil price shocks and inflation: A cross-national examination in the ASEAN5+3 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Costin Radu Boldea & Bogdan Ion Boldea & Tiberiu Iancu, 2023. "The Pandemic Waves’ Impact on the Crude Oil Price and the Rise of Consumer Price Index: Case Study for Six European Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-15, April.
    3. Yang, Tianle & Dong, Qingyuan & Du, Min & Du, Qunyang, 2023. "Geopolitical risks, oil price shocks and inflation: Evidence from a TVP–SV–VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    4. Edoardo Beretta & Doris Neuberger, 2023. "Monetary aggregates in the US since 2020 and post-COVID-19 inflation: evidence from the equation of exchange," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 321-330.
    5. Shah, Sayar Ahmad & Garg, Bhavesh, 2023. "Identifying efficient policy mix under different targeting regimes: A tale of two crises," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 975-994.
    6. Aharon, David Y. & Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf Azman & Nor, Safwan Mohd, 2023. "Cross-country study of the linkages between COVID-19, oil prices, and inflation in the G7 countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    7. Nassar S. Al-Nassar & Abdulrahman A. Albahouth, 2023. "Inflation Spillovers among Advanced and Emerging Economies: Evidence from the G20 Group," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-25, April.
    8. Elie Bouri & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Harald Kinateder, 2023. "Geopolitical Risk and Inflation Spillovers across European and North American Economies," Working Papers 202304, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Prices; Connectedness; TVP-VAR; COVID-19; Russia-Ukraine conflict;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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