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Flexible inflation targets, forex interventions and exchange rate volatility in emerging countries

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  • Juan Carlos Berganza

    ()
    (Banco de España)

  • Carmen Broto

    ()
    (Banco de España)

Abstract

Emerging economies with inflation targets (IT) face a dilemma between fulfilling the theoretical conditions of "strict IT", which imply a fully flexible exchange rate, or applying a "flexible IT", which entails a de facto managed floating exchange rate with FX interventions to moderate exchange rate volatility. Using a panel data model for 37 countries we find that, although IT lead to higher exchange rate instability than alternative regimes, FX interventions in some IT countries have been more effective to lower volatility than in non-IT countries, which may justify the use of "flexible IT" by policymakers.

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Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 1105.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1105

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Keywords: inflation targeting; exchange rate volatility; foreign exchange interventions; emerging economies;

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Cited by:
  1. Rathin Roy & Raquel Almeida Ramos, 2012. "IMF Article IV Reports: An Analysis of Policy Recommendations," Working Papers 86, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
  2. Runchana Pongsaparn & Panda Ketruangroch & Dhanaporn Hirunwong, 2012. "Monetary Policy conduct in Review: The Appropriate Choice of Instruments," Working Papers 2012-05, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
  3. Broto, Carmen, 2013. "The effectiveness of forex interventions in four Latin American countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 224-240.
  4. Pablo Pincheira, 2013. "Interventions and Inflation Expectations in an Inflation Targeting Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 693, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Marc Pourroy, 2013. "Inflation-Targeting and Foreign Exchange Interventions in Emerging Economies," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13074, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  6. Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael A Portillo & David Vavra, 2013. "Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," IMF Working Papers 13/11, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Marc Pourroy, 2013. "Inflation-Targeting and Foreign Exchange Interventions in Emerging Economies," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00881359, HAL.
  8. Moura, Marcelo L. & Pereira, Fatima R. & Attuy, Guilherme de Moraes, 2013. "Currency Wars in Action: How Foreign Exchange Interventions Work in an Emerging Economy," Insper Working Papers wpe_304, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  9. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  10. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "Monetary policy and the first- and second-moment exchange rate change during the global financial crisis: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-194.

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