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Riding the wave: Monetary responses to aid surges in low-income countries

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  • Buffie, Edward
  • Adam, Christopher
  • O'Connell, Stephen
  • Pattillo, Catherine

Abstract

We focus on the management of highly persistent shocks to aid flows in the presence of currency substitution by the domestic private sector. Such shocks have beneficent long-run effects, but when currency substitution is high they can produce dramatic macroeconomic management problems in the short run. What is the appropriate mix of money and exchange rate targeting in such cases, and the role of temporary sterilization? We analyze these and related issues in an intertemporal optimizing model that allows a portion of aid to be devoted to reducing the government's seigniorage requirement. Our results show that a managed float, with little or no sterilization of increases in the monetary base, supports the smooth absorption of the increased aid without incurring higher inflation, higher real interest rates or overshooting of the real exchange rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 52 (2008)
Issue (Month): 8 (November)
Pages: 1378-1395

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:52:y:2008:i:8:p:1378-1395

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer

Related research

Keywords: Aid Sterilization Currency substitution Seigniorage Africa;

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References

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  1. Christopher Adam & Stephen O’Connell & Edward Buffie, 2007. "Monetary Policy Rules For Manging Aid Surges In Africa," WEF Working Papers 0016, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1994. "The capital inflows problem: Concepts and issues," MPRA Paper 13902, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2001. "Fixing for your life," MPRA Paper 13873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Craig Burnside & Domenico Fanizza, 2004. "Hiccups for HIPCs?," NBER Working Papers 10903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Ndikumana, Leonce & Boyce, James K., 2003. "Public Debts and Private Assets: Explaining Capital Flight from Sub-Saharan African Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 107-130, January.
  8. Catherine A. Pattillo & Stephen A. O'Connell & Christopher Adam & Edward F. Buffie, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and the Management of Official and Private Capital Flows in Africa," IMF Working Papers 04/216, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1993. "Sterilization of Money Inflows: Difficult (Calvo) or Easy (Reisen)?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-024, University of California at Berkeley.
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  14. Asea, Patrick K & Reinhart, Carmen M, 1996. "Le Prix de l'Argent: How (Not) to Deal with Capital Inflows," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 5(3), pages 231-71, October.
  15. Adam, Christopher, 1999. "Financial Liberalisation and Currency Demand in Zambia," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(3), pages 268-306, October.
  16. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
  17. Reinhart, Carmen & Ogaki, Masao & Ostry, Jonathan, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," MPRA Paper 6978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  20. Christopher Adam & David Bevan, 2004. "Aid, Public Expenditure and Dutch Disease," Development and Comp Systems 0409027, EconWPA.
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  22. Buffie, Edward F. & O'Connell, Stephen A. & Adam, Christopher, 2010. "Fiscal inertia, donor credibility, and the monetary management of aid surges," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 287-298, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Christopher Adam & Stephen O’Connell & Edward Buffie, 2007. "Monetary Policy Rules For Manging Aid Surges In Africa," WEF Working Papers 0016, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
  2. Rafael Portillo & Andrew Berg & Jan Gottschalk & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2010. "The Macroeconomics of Medium-Term Aid Scaling-Up Scenarios," IMF Working Papers 10/160, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Pedro M G Martins, . "Capital Inflows Hinder Competitiveness? The Real Exchange Rate in Ethiopia," Discussion Papers 10/07, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
  4. Hisali, Eria, 2010. "Fiscal policy consistency and implications for macroeconomic aggregates: the case of Uganda," Research Reports 102489, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
  5. Pedro M. G. Martins, 2010. "Do Capital Inflows Hinder Competitiveness? The Real Exchange Rate in Ethiopia," Working Paper Series 1110, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
  6. Hisali, Eria, 2010. "Fiscal policy consistency and its implications for macroeconomic aggregates: The case of Uganda," Research Series 113615, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
  7. Buffie, Edward F. & O'Connell, Stephen A. & Adam, Christopher, 2010. "Fiscal inertia, donor credibility, and the monetary management of aid surges," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 287-298, November.

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