Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Structural Vector Autoregressions with Markov Switching

Contents:

Author Info

  • Markku Lanne
  • Helmut Luetkepohl
  • Katarzyna Maciejowska

Abstract

It is argued that in structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis a Markov regime switching (MS) property can be exploited to identify shocks if the reduced form error covariance matrix varies across regimes. The model setup is formulated and discussed and it is shown how it can be used to test restrictions which are just-identifying in a standard structural vector autoregressive analysis. The approach is illustrated by two SVAR examples which have been reported in the literature and which have features which can be accommodated by the MS structure.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://cadmus.eui.eu/dspace/bitstream/1814/10674/1/ECO_2009_06.pdf
File Function: main text
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European University Institute in its series Economics Working Papers with number ECO2009/06.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2009/06

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Badia Fiesolana, Via dei Roccettini, 9, 50016 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) Italy
Phone: +39-055-4685.982
Fax: +39-055-4685.902
Web page: http://www.eui.eu/ECO/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Cointegration; Markov regime switching model; vector error correction model; structural vector autoregression; mixed normal distribution;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1990. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  3. Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," CEPR Discussion Papers 2137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "How do stock prices respond to fundamental shocks?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 90-99, June.
  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
  6. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
  7. Pagan, A.R. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2008. "Econometric analysis of structural systems with permanent and transitory shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3376-3395, October.
  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Markku Lanne, Helmut Luetkepohl, 2006. "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks via Changes in Volatility," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/23, European University Institute.
  10. Rapach, David E., 2001. "Macro shocks and real stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 5-26.
  11. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
  12. Lanne, Markku & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions With Nonnormal Residuals," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(1), pages 159-168.
  13. Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006. "Markov-Switching Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Application," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 69, Society for Computational Economics.
  14. Christopher A. Sims & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," Working Paper 2006-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  15. Koop, G, 1992. "Aggregate Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Bayesian Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 395-411, Oct.-Dec..
  16. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Fabio Canova & Gianni De Nicolo, 2000. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," International Finance Discussion Papers 660, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "Were there regime switches in U.S. monetary policy?," Working Paper 2004-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  19. Ralf Brueggemann & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2005. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Empirical Results for the U.S. and Europe," Economics Working Papers ECO2005/08, European University Institute.
  20. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  21. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  22. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Aleksei NETSUNAJEV, 2012. "Reaction to Technology Shocks in Markov-Switchings Structural VARs: Identification via heteroskedasticity," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/13, European University Institute.
  2. Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Structural Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Pierre Guérin & Laurent Maurin & Matthias Mohr, 2011. "Trend-cycle decomposition of output and euro area inflation forecasts: a real-time approach based on model combination," Working Paper Series 1384, European Central Bank.
  4. Alexander Kriwoluzky, 2009. "Matching Theory and Data: Bayesian Vector Autoregression and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/29, European University Institute.
  5. Aleksei Netšunajev, 2013. "Reaction to technology shocks in Markov-switching structural VARs: identification via heteroskedasticity," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2012-6, Bank of Estonia, revised 03 Jan 2013.
  6. Wenjuan Chen & Anton Velinov, 2012. "Do Japanese Stock Prices Reflect Macro Fundamentals?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-037, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  7. Kohonen, Anssi, 2012. "On detection of volatility spillovers in simultaneously open stock markets," MPRA Paper 37504, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2012. "Identifying Structural Vector Autoregressions via Changes in Volatility," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1259, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  9. Helmut Lütkepohl & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2012. "Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market: How to Check Sign Restrictions in Structural VARs," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1195, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2009/06

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marcia Gastaldo).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.