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Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Empirical Results for the U.S. and Europe

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Author Info
Ralf Brüggemann
Helmut Lütkepohl

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Abstract

A system of U.S. and euro area short- and long-term interest rates is analyzed. According to the expectations hypothesis of the term structure the interest rate spreads should be stationary and according to the uncovered interest rate parity the difference between the U.S. and euro area longterm interest rates should also be stationary. If all four interest rates are integrated of order one, one would expect to find three linearly independent cointegration relations in the system of four interest rate series. Combining German and European Monetary Union data to obtain the euro area interest rate series we find indeed the theoretically expected three cointegration relations, in contrast to previous studies based on different data sets.

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Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2005-035.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2005-035

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Related research
Keywords: Expectations hypothesis of the term structure; uncovered interest rate parity; unit roots; cointegration analysis;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kirchgassner, Gebhard & Wolters, Jurgen, 1993. "Does the DM Dominate the Euro Market? An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 773-78, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
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  3. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Ralf Brueggemann & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2004. "A Small Monetary System for the Euro Area Based on German Data," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/24, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Katarina Juselius, 1998. "Changing monetary transmission mechanisms within the EU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 455-481. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Heather Anderson & Mardi Dungey & Denise Osborn & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Constructing Historical Euro Area Data," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 99, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Simone Casellina & Mariacristina Uberti, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Long-term Interest Rate Dynamics: Taylor Rule Extensions," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 183-198, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Edda Claus & Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry, 2006. "Monetary Policy In Illiquid Markets: Options For A Small Open Economy," CAMA Working Papers 2006-17, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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