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Interwar Deflation and Depression

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Author Info

  • Bill Dorval

    ()
    (Queen)

  • Gregor W. Smith

    ()
    (Queen)

Abstract

Interwar macroeconomic history is a natural place to look for evidence on the correlations between (a) deflation and depression and (b) unexpected deflation and depression. We apply time-series methods to measure unexpected deflation or inflation for 26 countries from 1922 to 1939. The results suggest much variation across countries in the degree to which the ongoing deflation of the 1930s was unexpected. There is a significant, positive correlation between deflation and depression for the entire period but relatively little evidence of a role for unexpected deflation.

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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_1310.pdf
File Function: First version 2013
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1310.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1310

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Keywords: inflation expectations; interwar period; Great Depression;

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  1. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Fair, Ray C & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1988. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 595-612, September.
  2. Gregor W. Smith, 2006. "The Spectre of Deflation: A Review of Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 1086, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  4. Evans, Martin & Wachtel, Paul, 1993. "Were price changes during the Great Depression anticipated? : Evidence from nominal interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 3-34, August.
  5. Hamilton, James D, 1992. "Was the Deflation during the Great Depression Anticipated? Evidence from the Commodity Futures Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 157-78, March.
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