Interwar Deflation and Depression
AbstractInterwar macroeconomic history is a natural place to look for evidence on the correlations between (a) deflation and depression and (b) unexpected deflation and depression. We apply time-series methods to measure unexpected deflation or inflation for 26 countries from 1922 to 1939. The results suggest much variation across countries in the degree to which the ongoing deflation of the 1930s was unexpected. There is a significant, positive correlation between deflation and depression for the entire period but relatively little evidence of a role for unexpected deflation.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1310.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2013
Date of revision:
inflation expectations; interwar period; Great Depression;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-07-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-HIS-2013-07-15 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-MAC-2013-07-15 (Macroeconomics)
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