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Prices during the Great Depression: Was the Deflation of 1930-1932 Really Unanticipated?

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  • Cecchetti, Stephen G

Abstract

This paper examines inflationary expectations in order to investigate whether the deflation of 1930-32 could have been anticipated. The major conclusion is that beginning in late 1930, and possibly as early as late 1929, deflation could have been anticipated at horizons of three-six months. This implies, in turn, that short-run ex ante real interest rates were very high during the initial phases of the Great Depression. These results provide further support for the proposition that monetary contraction was the driving force behind the economic decline. Copyright 1992 by American Economic Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 82 (1992)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 141-56

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:82:y:1992:i:1:p:141-56

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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Inflation Expectations: How Credibility Pays Off
    by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2014-07-31 12:19:31
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Cited by:
  1. Eggertsson, Gauti B. & Pugsley, Benjamin, 2006. "The mistake of 1931: A general equilibrium analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  2. Rockoff, Hugh & White, Eugene N., 2012. "Monetary Regimes and Policy on a Global Scale: The Oeuvre of Michael D. Bordo," MPRA Paper 49672, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2013.
  3. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2007. "Was the New Deal Contractionary?," 2007 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 660, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2008. "Great Expectations and the End of the Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1476-1516, September.

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