Prices during the Great Depression: Was the Deflation of 1930-1932 Really Unanticipated?
AbstractThis paper examines inflationary expectations in order to investigate whether the deflation of 1930-32 could have been anticipated. The major conclusion is that beginning in late 1930, and possibly as early as late 1929, deflation could have been anticipated at horizons of three-six months. This implies, in turn, that short-run ex ante real interest rates were very high during the initial phases of the Great Depression. These results provide further support for the proposition that monetary contraction was the driving force behind the economic decline. Copyright 1992 by American Economic Association.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 82 (1992)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Inflation Expectations: How Credibility Pays Off
by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2014-07-31 12:19:31
- Eggertsson, Gauti B. & Pugsley, Benjamin, 2006. "The mistake of 1931: A general equilibrium analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2012.
"Was the New Deal Contractionary?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 524-55, February.
- Rockoff, Hugh & White, Eugene N., 2012. "Monetary Regimes and Policy on a Global Scale: The Oeuvre of Michael D. Bordo," MPRA Paper 49672, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2013.
- Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2008.
"Great Expectations and the End of the Depression,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1476-1516, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jane Voros) or (Michael P. Albert).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.