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Revisiting the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle with regime switching: New evidence from European countries

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  • Chen, Shyh-Wei
  • Shen, Chung-Hua

Abstract

Feldstein and Horioka (1980) propose assessing the degree of capital mobility by measuring the correlation between saving and investment. The high correlation between saving and investment is known as the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle (FHP). This study tests for the presence of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in nine European countries by employing the Markov switching model in order to characterize the time-varying behavior of the saving retention coefficient. The econometric methodology allows us to distinguish periods for which the FHP holds from those for which the FHP does not hold. It is found that, based on the results from the Markov switching regression, there is a shift in the saving retention coefficients from high to low values, meaning that regime switching has taken place from the high correlation regime (low capital mobility) to the low correlation regime (high capital mobility) for Denmark, Germany, Norway, and Sweden. This evidence suggests that the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle holds for a particular period of time and depends upon the regime shifts.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2015. "Revisiting the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle with regime switching: New evidence from European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 260-269.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:49:y:2015:i:c:p:260-269
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.03.020
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    Cited by:

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    7. Hwang, Sun Ho & Kim, Yun Jung, 2018. "Capital mobility in OECD countries: A multi-level factor approach to saving–investment correlations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 150-159.
    8. Onur ÖZDEMIR, 2022. "High-Income Countries and Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: Econometric Evidence from Dynamic Common-Correlated Effects Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 45-67, April.
    9. Ekrem ERDEM & Ahmet KOSEOGLU & Ali Gokhan YUCEL, 2016. "Testing the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: New evidence from structural breaks for Turkey," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(607), S), pages 17-26, Summer.
    10. Neto, David, 2021. "Adaptive LASSO for selecting Fourier coefficients in a functional smooth time-varying cointegrating regression: An application to the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 253-264.
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    12. Phiri, Andrew, 2019. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from South Africa using Asymmetric Cointegration Analysis," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 72(2), pages 139-170.
    13. Ketenci, Natalya, 2018. "Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Level of Capital Mobility in EU Members," MPRA Paper 100075, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Natalya Ketenci, 2016. "The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Structural Breaks: Evidence from the Largest Countries of Asia," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 10(3), pages 337-354, August.
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