Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and Spurious Ratio Correlation

Contents:

Author Info

  • Chu, Kam Hon
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This study shows that the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle resembles a spurious ratio correlation due to a common deflator (Pearson 1896/7). Empirically, the Feldstein-Horioka specification and its counterpart with an arbitrary deflator – final domestic demand – give similar results. Monte Carlo results also indicates that the slope β and R2 of the ratio regression are upward biased. Theoretically, assuming each of the original undeflated variables are linear homogeneous functions of the deflator and random disturbances, formulas for β and R2 are derived. As saving and investment rates are numerically small relative to the disturbances, both β and R2 are predominantly determined by the disturbances and they tend towards unity when the disturbances are close in magnitude. The Feldstein-Horioka results are therefore noisy, though not entirely spurious, and do not necessarily reflect a strong correlation between investment and savings.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560611001781
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 31 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 292-309

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:2:p:292-309

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

    Related research

    Keywords: Feldstein-Horioka puzzle; International Capital Mobility; Investment-saving correlation; Spurious Ratio Correlation;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff & Ben Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, . "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is there a Common Cause?," Working Paper 32326, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    2. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, . "Saving-Investment Correlations: Transitory versus Permanent," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 97-06, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
    3. Coakley, Jerry & Hasan, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1999. "Saving, Investment, and Capital Mobility in LDCs," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 632-40, November.
    4. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1993. "Explaining Saving-Investment Correlations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 416-36, June.
    5. Kim, Ji-Hyun, 1999. "Spurious correlation between ratios with a common divisor," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 383-386, October.
    6. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Martin Feldstein & Philippe Bacchetta, 1991. "National Saving and International Investment," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 201-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    9. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 4893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
    11. Katsimi, Margarita & Moutos, Thomas, 2007. "A Note on Human Capital and the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-30, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    12. Kejriwal Mohitosh, 2008. "Cointegration with Structural Breaks: An Application to the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-39, March.
    13. W. Jos Jansen, 2003. "International Capital Mobility: Evidence from Panel Data," International Finance 0310003, EconWPA.
    14. Jansen, W. Jos, 1997. "Can the intertemporal budget constraint explain the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 77-83, September.
    15. Kim, Hongkee & Oh, Keun-Yeob & Jeong, Chan-Woo, 2005. "Panel cointegration results on international capital mobility in Asian economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 71-82, February.
    16. Erdal Ozmen & Kağan Parmaksiz, 2003. "Exchange rate regimes and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: the French evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 217-222.
    17. Krol, Robert, 1996. "International capital mobility: evidence from panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 467-474, June.
    18. G. Rossini & P. Zanghieri, 2003. "A simple test of the role of foreign direct investment in the Feldstein- Horioka puzzle," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 39-41.
    19. Martin Feldstein, 1991. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Movements in the Long Run and the Short Run," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 331-353 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Sinn, Stefan, 1992. "Saving-Investment Correlations and Capital Mobility: On the Evidence from Annual Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(414), pages 1162-70, September.
    21. J. Mcclure, 1994. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: The IS-LM model with optimal policy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 371-382, October.
    22. Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1996. "Current Account Solvency and the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 620-27, May.
    23. Herwartz, Helmut & Xu, Fang, 2007. "A functional coefficient model view of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle," Economics Working Papers 2007,14, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    24. Moosa , Imad A., 1997. "Resolving the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 50(3), pages 437-458.
    25. Fouquau, Julien & Hurlin, Christophe & Rabaud, Isabelle, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 284-299, March.
    26. Amirkhalkhali, Saleh & Dar, Atul A, 1993. "Testing for Capital Mobility: A Random Coefficients Approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 523-41.
    27. Georgopoulos, George J. & Hejazi, Walid, 2005. "Feldstein-Horioka meets a time trend," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 353-357, March.
    28. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    29. Apostolos Serletis & Periklis Gogas, 2007. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in an ARIMA framework," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 194-210, September.
    30. Tesar, L.L., 1988. "Savings, Investment And International Capital Flows," RCER Working Papers 154, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    31. Yan Bai & Jing Zhang, 2010. "Solving the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle With Financial Frictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 603-632, 03.
    32. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2009. "A survey of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: What has been done and where we stand," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 64-76, June.
    33. Telatar, Erdinc & Telatar, Funda & Bolatoglu, Nasip, 2007. "A regime switching approach to the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: Evidence from some European countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 523-533.
    34. Marianna Belloc & Giancarlo Gandolfo, 2005. "The Current Account - Interest Rate Relation as a Nonlinear Phenomenon," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 145-166.
    35. Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1998. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and Capital Mobility: A Review," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 169-88, April.
    36. Maurice Obstfeld, 1985. "Capital Mobility in the World Economy: Theory and Measurement," NBER Working Papers 1692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Caroline Schmidt, 2007. "Saving–investment Correlations in Response to Monetary Policy Shocks: New Insights into the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 347-367, July.
    38. Ho, Tsung-wu, 2002. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 555-564, August.
    39. Georgopoulos, George & Hejazi, Walid, 2009. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle revisited: Is the home-bias much less?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 341-350, March.
    40. De Vita, Glauco & Abbott, Andrew, 2002. "Are saving and investment cointegrated? An ARDL bounds testing approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 293-299, October.
    41. Tamim Bayoumi, 1990. "Saving-Investment Correlations: Immobile Capital, Government Policy, or Endogenous Behavior?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 360-387, June.
    42. Nell, Kevin S. & Santos, Luis Delfim, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis versus the long-run solvency constraint model: A critical assessment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 66-70, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:2:p:292-309. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.