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Some lessons from the financial crisis for the economic analysis

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  • Kenny, Geoff
  • Morgan, Julian

Abstract

The economics profession in general, and economic forecasters in particular, have faced some understandable criticism for their failure to predict the timing and severity of the recent economic crisis. In this paper, we offer some assessment of the performance of the Economic Analysis conducted at the ECB both in the run up to and since the onset of the crisis. Drawing on this assessment, we then offer some indications of how the analysis of economic developments could be improved looking forward. The key priorities identifi ed include the need to: i) extend existing tools and/or develop new tools to account for important feedback mechanisms, for instance, improved real-fi nancial linkages and non-linear dynamics; ii) develop ways to handle the complexity arising from the presence of multiple models and alternative economic paradigms; and iii) given the limitations of point forecasts, to further develop risk and scenario analysis around baseline projections. JEL Classification: C43, D91, E31, E52, E58

Suggested Citation

  • Kenny, Geoff & Morgan, Julian, 2011. "Some lessons from the financial crisis for the economic analysis," Occasional Paper Series 130, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2011130
    Note: 339061
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Guarda, Paolo & Jeanfils, Philippe, 2012. "Macro-Financial Linkages: evidence from country-specific VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 8875, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Carola Conces Binder & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2023. "Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey," Staff Working Papers 23-18, Bank of Canada.
    3. Lucia Alessi & Eric Ghysels & Luca Onorante & Richard Peach & Simon Potter, 2014. "Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting During the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 483-500, October.
    4. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Mattia Guerini & Fabio Vanni & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2022. "Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input–Output Approach [Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 358-409.
    5. Alexander Jung, 2018. "Have money and credit data releases helped markets to predict the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(1), pages 39-67, February.
    6. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Jung, Alexander, 2012. "Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    7. Liosi, Konstantina, 2023. "The sources of economic uncertainty: Evidence from eurozone markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Vesna Bucevska, 2015. "Currency Crises in EU Candidate Countries: An Early Warning System Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 493-510, September.
    9. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have monetary data releases helped markets to predict the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank?," Working Paper Series 1926, European Central Bank.
    10. Jung, Alexander & Mongelli, Francesco, 2013. "Monetary policy decision-making when information search is costly," MPRA Paper 80517, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 May 2016.
    11. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Revisiting the relative forecast performances of Fed staff and private forecasters: A dynamic approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 313-323.
    12. Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2014. "Does the federal reserve staff still beat private forecasters?," Working Paper Series 1635, European Central Bank.
    13. Yolanda S. Stander, 2023. "The Governance and Disclosure of IFRS 9 Economic Scenarios," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, January.
    14. Kolev, Kaloyan, 2016. "Глобалната Икономическа Криза И Поведенческият Икономикс [The Global Economic Crisis and Behavioral Economics]," MPRA Paper 114570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ozge Akinci & Albert Queraltó, 2014. "Banks, Capital Flows and Financial Crises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1121, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Harun, Cicilia A. & Taruna, Aditya Anta & Ramdani,, 2021. "Capturing the nonlinear impact in distress state: Enhancing scenario design of stress test," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 265-288.
    17. G. Kenny, 2014. "Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 500-504, October.
    18. Gong, Rui & Page, Frank, 2016. "Shadow banks and systemic risks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66044, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Smaranda CIMPOERU, 2015. "Models for evaluating financial crisis – what went wrong for developed and emerging economies?," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(602), S), pages 291-300, Spring.
    20. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Mattia Guerini & Fabio Vanni & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2021. "Assessing the economic effects of lockdowns in Italy: a computational Input-Output approach," LEM Papers Series 2021/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    21. Bergin, Adele & Conroy, Niall & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Holland, Dawn & McInerney, Niall & Morgenroth, Edgar & Smith, Donal, 2017. "COSMO: A new COre Structural MOdel for Ireland," Papers WP553, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    22. Mikhail V. Oet & John M. Dooley & Amanda C. Janosko & Dieter Gramlich & Stephen J. Ong, 2015. "Supervising System Stress in Multiple Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-25, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area; financial crisis; macro-economic forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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