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Some lessons from the financial crisis for the economic analysis

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  • Kenny, Geoff
  • Morgan, Julian

Abstract

The economics profession in general, and economic forecasters in particular, have faced some understandable criticism for their failure to predict the timing and severity of the recent economic crisis. In this paper, we offer some assessment of the performance of the Economic Analysis conducted at the ECB both in the run up to and since the onset of the crisis. Drawing on this assessment, we then offer some indications of how the analysis of economic developments could be improved looking forward. The key priorities identifi ed include the need to: i) extend existing tools and/or develop new tools to account for important feedback mechanisms, for instance, improved real-fi nancial linkages and non-linear dynamics; ii) develop ways to handle the complexity arising from the presence of multiple models and alternative economic paradigms; and iii) given the limitations of point forecasts, to further develop risk and scenario analysis around baseline projections. JEL Classification: C43, D91, E31, E52, E58

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Occasional Paper Series with number 130.

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Date of creation: Oct 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:20110130

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Keywords: euro area; financial crisis; MACRO ECONOMIC FORECASTING;

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  1. Hall, Stephen G. & Mitchell, James, 2007. "Combining density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-13.
  2. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Can We Predict Recessions?," NCER Working Paper Series, National Centre for Econometric Research 69, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  3. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers, Econometric Society 1164, Econometric Society.
  4. Kirstin Hubrich & Robert J. Tetlow, 2012. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: the transmission of crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 2012-82, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Cited by:
  1. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Jung, Alexander, 2014. "Does the federal reserve staff still beat private forecasters?," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1635, European Central Bank.
  2. Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen & A. Jung, 2012. "Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?," IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research 5, Halle Institute for Economic Research.

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