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The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Evidence from Geopolitical Swings on the Korean Peninsula

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  • Jongrim Ha
  • Seohyun Lee
  • Inhwan So

Abstract

Using a novel set of instrumental variables in a structural VAR framework, we investigate the economic impact of uncertainty shocks from geopolitical swings on the Korean Peninsula over 2003–17. We construct robust instrumental variables for these shocks based on high‐frequency changes in financial asset returns and their volatilities around the geopolitical events. The empirical results suggest that heightened geopolitical uncertainty has negative impacts on macroeconomic outcomes in South Korea. We provide evidence that financial and capital markets play a key role in the transmission of geopolitical uncertainty shocks.

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  • Jongrim Ha & Seohyun Lee & Inhwan So, 2022. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Evidence from Geopolitical Swings on the Korean Peninsula," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 21-56, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:84:y:2022:i:1:p:21-56
    DOI: 10.1111/obes.12456
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    2. Moritz Grebe & Sinem Kandemir & Peter Tillmann, 2023. "Uncertainty about the War in Ukraine: Measurement and Effects on the German Business Cycle," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202314, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. Khan, Khalid & Khurshid, Adnan & Cifuentes-Faura, Javier, 2023. "Investigating the relationship between geopolitical risks and economic security: Empirical evidence from central and Eastern European countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).

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