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Analyzing U.S. Output and the Great Moderation by Simultaneous Unobserved Components

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  • ENZO WEBER

Abstract

This paper seeks to determine the causal interaction between structural trend and cycle innovations in an unobserved components framework of aggregate output. For the purpose of identification, I propose allowing for shifts in volatility. This strategy provides good estimation precision when applied to U.S. industrial production. In the early 1980s, predominance of cycle shocks gives way to strong negative spillovers of trend impulses, consistent with real business cycle theories. The coincident reduction of macroeconomic volatility was mainly caused by pronounced dampening of transitory disturbances. This is in accordance with an important role of macroeconomic policy in explaining the Great Moderation.
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  • Enzo Weber, 2011. "Analyzing U.S. Output and the Great Moderation by Simultaneous Unobserved Components," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1579-1597, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:43:y:2011:i:8:p:1579-1597
    DOI: j.1538-4616.2011.00459.x
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    1. Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2016. "On the identification of multivariate correlated unobserved components models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 15-18.
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    3. Gehrke, Britta & Weber, Enzo, 2018. "Identifying asymmetric effects of labor market reforms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 18-40.
    4. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2016. "Detecting unemployment hysteresis: A simultaneous unobserved components model with Markov switching," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 115-118.
    5. Mardi Dungey & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Jing Jian & Simon van Norden, 2013. "Trend-Cycle Decomposition: Implications from an Exact Structural Identification," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-23, CIRANO.
    6. Ivan Mendieta-Munoz & Mengheng Li, 2019. "The Multivariate Simultaneous Unobserved Compenents Model and Identification via Heteroskedasticity," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2019_06, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    7. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2020. "GDP-employment decoupling in Germany," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 82-98.

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