Uso de Análisis Factorial Dinámico para Proyecciones Macroeconómicas
AbstractIn this paper we use the dynamic factor analysis methodology developed by Stock and Watson (1998) in order to forecast inflation and an index of economic activity for the Chilean economy. Our results indicate that using factors in the process of forecasting of these macroeconomic variables improve significantly out of sample forecasts. Additionally, we find that factor augmented Phillips curve forecasts perform better than conventional Phillips curve forecasts based only on output gap measures.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 274.
Date of creation: Nov 2004
Date of revision:
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