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The Classification and Identification of Asset Price Bubbles

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Abstract

This article briefly summarizes approaches to and options for identifying bubbles in asset prices. Further, the article draws on bubble literature and it theoretically discusses classification of asset price bubbles according to features as differences in rationality of investors, their informational (a)symmetry, limits in arbitrage and heterogeneous beliefs. It also highlights the identification problems related with determining the fundamental value of an asset. We argue that disequilibrium asset price is a necessary but not sufficient condition for finding a bubble in a given asset. The market and country specifics have to be borne in mind. The article also specifies the procedure for monitoring and early identification of asset price bubbles. We recommend using all available spectrum of tools in the most effective arrangement ranging from charting methods (trends, filters, price-to-income ratios) via one-equation fundamentals based models to complex and structurally rich models.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 61 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 34-48

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Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:61:y:2011:i:1:p:34-48

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Keywords: asset prices; asset bubbles; equilibrium value; misalignment;

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  1. Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals : Technical Analysis," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 769, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jan Babecky & Alena Bicakova & Alexis Derviz & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Jakub Mateju & Ke Pang & Renata Pasalicova & Zuzana Prelcova & Marie Rakova & Pierre, 2011. "Macro-Financial Linkages: Theory and Applications," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 9, number rb09/2 edited by Jan Babecky, August.
  2. Kamil Galuscak & Adam Gersl & Marcela Gronychova & Petr Hlavac & Petr Jakubik & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2014. "Stress-Testing Analyses of the Czech Financial System," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 12, number rb12/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, August.
  3. Jaromir Baxa & Michal Franta & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Miroslav Plasil & Marek Rusnak & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Transmission of Monetary Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 11, number rb11/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, August.
  4. Deev, Oleg & Kajurova, Veronika & Stavarek, Daniel, 2013. "Testing rational speculative bubbles in Central European stock markets," MPRA Paper 46582, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Victor DRAGOTA & Carmen LIPARA & Radu CIOBANU, 2013. "Agency Problems and Synergistic Effects in Romania: The Determinants of the Control Premium," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(2), pages 197-219, May.
  6. Robert Ambrisko & Vitezslav Augusta & Jan Babecky & Michal Franta & Dana Hajkova & Petr Kral & Jan Libich & Pavla Netusilova & Milan Rikovsky & Jakub Rysanek & Pavel Soukup & Petr Stehlik & Vilem Vale, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 11, number rb11/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak, August.

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