IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bkr/wpaper/wps46.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Idiosyncratic shocks: estimation and the impact on aggregate fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Svetlana Popova

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

Abstract

Recently, economic granularity has been the focus of researchers' attention. Latest empirical works evaluate the granularity of various economies in terms of whether shocks to individual companies can affect volatility of macroeconomic variables. Studies of developed countries show that a large part of aggregate fluctuations arises from idiosyncratic shocks to companies because of their size or close linkages between them. Using the microdata of Russian firms on sales over the period from 1999 to 2017, we test the hypothesis that the Russian economy is granular. Here we found that idiosyncratic shocks contribute significantly to total sales volatility. It was also revealed that the effect of linkages is more important in aggregate volatility estimation, but not for the top-100 largest firms. These findings are important for understanding business cycle drivers and for estimation the impact of macroeconomic policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Svetlana Popova, 2019. "Idiosyncratic shocks: estimation and the impact on aggregate fluctuations," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps46, Bank of Russia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps46
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cbr.ru/Content/Document/File/87574/wp_46_e.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.
    2. John Haltiwanger, 1997. "Measuring and analyzing aggregate fluctuations: the importance of building from microeconomic evidence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 55-78.
    3. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2014. "Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1303-1340, July.
    4. Meghana Ayyagari & Thorsten Beck & Mr. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, 2018. "The Micro Impact of Macroprudential Policies: Firm-Level Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2018/267, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Rui Castro & Gian Luca Clementi & Yoonsoo Lee, 2015. "Cross Sectoral Variation in the Volatility of Plant Level Idiosyncratic Shocks," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 1-29, March.
    6. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2017. "Large Firms and International Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 598-602, May.
    7. Xavier Gabaix & Rustam Ibragimov, 2011. "Rank - 1 / 2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39, January.
    8. Fornaro, Paolo & Luomaranta, Henri, 2018. "Aggregate fluctuations and the effect of large corporations: Evidence from Finnish monthly data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 245-258.
    9. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    10. Leonid Karasik & Danny Leung & Ben Tomlin, 2016. "Firm-Specific Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations," Staff Working Papers 16-51, Bank of Canada.
    11. Stella, Andrea, 2015. "Firm dynamics and the origins of aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 71-88.
    12. Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Kodjovi M. Eklou, 2017. "The Granular Origins of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Europe," IMF Working Papers 2017/229, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Gabaix, Xavier & Ibragimov, Rustam, 2011. "Rank − 1 / 2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39.
    14. Blanco-Arroyo, Omar & Ruiz-Buforn, Alba & Vidal-Tomás, David & Alfarano, Simone, 2018. "On the determination of the granular size of the economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 35-38.
    15. Nicolò Gnocato & Concetta Rondinelli, 2018. "Granular sources of the Italian business cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1190, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Friberg, Richard & Sanctuary, Mark, 2016. "The contribution of firm-level shocks to aggregate fluctuations: The case of Sweden," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 8-11.
    17. Michael Horvath, 1998. "Cyclicality and Sectoral Linkages: Aggregate Fluctuations from Independent Sectoral Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(4), pages 781-808, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jozef Konings & Galiya Sagyndykova & Venkat Subramanian & Astrid Volckaert, 2023. "The granular nature of emerging market economies: The case of Kazakhstan," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(2), pages 429-464, April.
    2. Stelios Giannoulakis & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2023. "Financial crises, firm‐level shocks and large downturns: Evidence from Greece," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1549-1562, April.
    3. Evguenia Bessonova & Anna Tsvetkova, 2022. "Do Productivity Laggards Ever Catch Up With Leaders?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(S1), pages 71-107, April.
    4. Jozef Konings & Galiya Sagyndykova & Venkat Subramanian & Astrid Volckaert, 2021. "The granular economy of Kazakhstan," Working Papers 2021/01, Nazarbayev University, Graduate School of Business.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jozef Konings & Galiya Sagyndykova & Venkat Subramanian & Astrid Volckaert, 2023. "The granular nature of emerging market economies: The case of Kazakhstan," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(2), pages 429-464, April.
    2. Jozef Konings & Galiya Sagyndykova & Venkat Subramanian & Astrid Volckaert, 2021. "The granular economy of Kazakhstan," Working Papers 2021/01, Nazarbayev University, Graduate School of Business.
    3. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael S. Schoenle & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 6619, CESifo.
    4. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidity and the Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael & Weber, Michael, 2017. "Price rigidities and the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations," Working Paper Series 2102, European Central Bank.
    7. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2019. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1155-1203, July.
    8. Stelios Giannoulakis & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2023. "Financial crises, firm‐level shocks and large downturns: Evidence from Greece," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1549-1562, April.
    9. Emmanuel Dhyne & Ayumu Ken Kikkawa & Glenn Magerman, 2022. "Imperfect Competition in Firm-to-Firm Trade," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(5), pages 1933-1970.
    10. Norbert Czinkán, 2017. "The Role of Individual Firms in Aggregate Fluctuations: Evidence from Hungary," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 16(2), pages 40-63.
    11. Imbs, Jean & Pauwels, Laurent, 2019. "Fundamental Moments," Working Papers BAWP-2019-06, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    12. Carlos Melo Gouveia & Cristina Manteu & Sónia Cabral, 2020. "The granularity of Portuguese firm-level exports," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    13. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2017. "Microeconomic Origins of Macroeconomic Tail Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 54-108, January.
    14. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yang, Cynthia Fan, 2020. "Econometric analysis of production networks with dominant units," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 507-541.
    15. Barauskaite, Kristina & Nguyen, Anh D.M., 2021. "Global intersectoral production network and aggregate fluctuations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    16. Andrew Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," NBER Working Papers 25867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Vasco M. Carvalho & Basile Grassi, 2019. "Large Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1375-1425, April.
    18. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2018. "Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Agents and Input-Output Networks," NBER Working Papers 24684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Erik Frohm & Vanessa Gunnella, 2021. "Spillovers in global production networks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 663-680, August.
    20. Lorenzo Burlon, 2015. "Ownership networks and aggregate volatility," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1004, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    21. Frohm, Erik & Gunnella, Vanessa, 2017. "Sectoral interlinkages in global value chains: spillovers and network effects," Working Paper Series 2064, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    firm-level dynamics; granular residuals; idiosyncratic shocks; aggregate fluctuations; industrial production.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D20 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps46. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: BoR Research (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbrgvru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.