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Granular sources of the Italian business cycle

Author

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  • Nicolò Gnocato

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Concetta Rondinelli

Abstract

A recent strand of literature has investigated the granular sources of the business cycle, i.e. to what extent firm-level dynamics have an impact on aggregate fluctuations. From a conceptual point of view, in the presence of fat-tailed firm-size distributions, shocks to large firms may not average out and may then have a direct effect on aggregate fluctuations; in addition, firm-to-firm linkages can propagate shocks to individual firms, leading to movements at the aggregate level. Using Cerved and INPS data, we test the granular hypothesis on a large sample of Italian firms, covering the period 1999-2014. Idiosyncratic Total Factor Productivity (TFP) shocks are found to explain around 30 per cent of aggregate TFP volatility; furthermore, the contribution of these linkages to firm-specific aggregate volatility is more important than that of the direct effect, especially for the manufacturing sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolò Gnocato & Concetta Rondinelli, 2018. "Granular sources of the Italian business cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1190, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1190_18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nikola Dacic & Marko Melolinna, 2022. "The empirics of granular origins: some challenges and solutions with an application to the UK," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 151-170, December.
    2. Svetlana Popova, 2019. "Idiosyncratic shocks: estimation and the impact on aggregate fluctuations," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps46, Bank of Russia.
    3. Jozef Konings & Galiya Sagyndykova & Venkat Subramanian & Astrid Volckaert, 2021. "The granular economy of Kazakhstan," Working Papers 2021/01, Nazarbayev University, Graduate School of Business.
    4. Stefano Costa & Federico Sallusti & Claudio Vicarelli & Davide Zurlo, 2022. "From Micro to Macro: Micro-Foundations of the Italian Business Cycle Co-movements During the Crises," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(3), pages 499-522, November.
    5. Dacic, Nikola & Melolinna, Marko, 2019. "The empirics of granular origins: some challenges and solutions with an application to the UK," Bank of England working papers 842, Bank of England.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    aggregate fluctuations; firm-level dynamics; productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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