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Do markup dynamics reflect fundamentals or changes in conduct?

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  • Juselius, Mikael
  • Kim, Moshe
  • Ringbom, Staffan

Abstract

Persistent shifts in equilibria are likely to arise in oligopolistic markets and may be detrimental to the measurement of conduct, related markups and intensity of competition. We develop a cointegrated VAR (vector autoregression) based approach to detect long-run changes in conduct when data are difference stationary. Importantly, we separate the components in markups which are exclusively related to long-run changes in conduct from those explained solely by fundamentals. Our approach does not require estimation of markups and conduct directly, thereby avoiding complex problems in existing methodologies related to multiple and changing equilibria. Results from applying the model to US and five major European banking sectors indicate substantially different behavior of conventional raw markups and conduct-induced markups.

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  • Juselius, Mikael & Kim, Moshe & Ringbom, Staffan, 2009. "Do markup dynamics reflect fundamentals or changes in conduct?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2009, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2009_012
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    Cited by:

    1. Putkuri, Hanna, 2010. "Housing loan rate margins in Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2010, Bank of Finland.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    markups; cointegration; VAR; macroeconomic fundamentals; competition; banking;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure

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