IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bcp/journl/v4y2020i8p218-223.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Public Debt and It’s Implication on Kenya’s Future Economic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Pollyne Mbithe Mutunga

    (Machakos University, Machakos, Kenya)

Abstract

An upsurge of Kenya’s public debt has elicited public debate on whether these crises could affect the future generation. Thus, the study adopted VAR model using data from 1980 to 2019 to investigate the effect of public debt on the future generation. To do this, the study utilized the historical data for GDP (dependent) and Public debt (independent variable) to estimate GDP for the years 2020, 2021, and 2022. Results reveal that public debt could slow down Kenya’s economic growth for the next three years. It was recommended that the country need debt restructuring to free up some financial resources and enhance investment in productive sectors as a mitigation measure.

Suggested Citation

  • Pollyne Mbithe Mutunga, 2020. "Public Debt and It’s Implication on Kenya’s Future Economic Growth," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 4(8), pages 218-223, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcp:journl:v:4:y:2020:i:8:p:218-223
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/Digital-Library/volume-4-issue-8/218-223.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.rsisinternational.org/virtual-library/papers/public-debt-and-its-implication-on-kenyas-future-economic-growth/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 499-526.
    2. Maureen Were, 2001. "The Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth in Kenya: An Empirical Assessment," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-116, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Adel M. EL-MAHDY & Neveen M. TORAYEH, 2009. "Debt Sustainabiliy And Economic Growth In Egypt," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    4. Gilles Saint-Paul, 1992. "Fiscal Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1243-1259.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bitar, Nicholas & Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2018. "Were Reinhart and Rogoff right?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 614-620.
    2. Kashif Munir & Nisma Riffat Mehmood, 2018. "Exploring the Channels and Impact of Debt on Economic Growth," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 19(2), pages 171-191, September.
    3. Brian Tavonga Mazorodze, 2020. "Re-visiting the External Debt-Economic Growth Question in Zimbabwe," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 12(2), pages 1-8.
    4. Riffat, Nisma & Munir, Kashif, 2015. "Exploring the Channels and Impact of Debt on Economic Growth in South Asia," MPRA Paper 66830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Mohammed Daher Alshammary & Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Norlin Khalid & Riayati Ahmad, 2020. "Debt-Growth Nexus in the MENA Region: Evidence from a Panel Threshold Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-12, November.
    6. Emmanuel Chinanuife & Paul Eze & Ozoemena S. Nwodo, 2018. "Public Debt Spiral and Domestic Investment in Nigeria," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 4(1), pages 153-161, March.
    7. Eric Ghysels & Leonardo Iania & Jonas Striaukas, 2018. "Quantile-based Inflation Risk Models," Working Paper Research 349, National Bank of Belgium.
    8. Nasreen, Samia & Anwar, Sofia & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2017. "Financial stability, energy consumption and environmental quality: Evidence from South Asian economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1105-1122.
    9. António Afonso & Yasfir Ibraimo, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of public debt: an empirical analysis of Mozambique," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(2), pages 212-226, January.
    10. Carlos Medel, 2017. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 004-050, December.
    11. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
    12. Eliana González & Luis F. Melo & Viviana Monroy & Brayan Rojas, 2009. "A Dynamic Factor Model For The Colombian Inflation," Borradores de Economia 5273, Banco de la Republica.
    13. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(4), pages 837-862, October.
    14. Lorenzo Carbonari & Alessio Farcomeni & Filippo Maurici & Giovanni Trovato, 2023. "On the output effect of fiscal consolidation plans: a causal analysis," Working Paper series 23-18, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    15. Altin Hoti & Aranit Shkurti & Scheherazade Rehman, 2022. "Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth in Western Balkan Countries," Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Richtmann Publishing Ltd, vol. 11, March.
    16. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1997. "The role of rents to human capital in economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 229-249, August.
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/74362fq3f99s299n07e84dlcib is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Michael W. McCracken & Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2021. "Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis Using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(71), pages 1-41, December.
    19. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2022. "How is machine learning useful for macroeconomic forecasting?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 920-964, August.
    20. Ferrari, Davide & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2021. "Forecasting energy commodity prices: A large global dataset sparse approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    21. Yang Zaigui, 2005. "Pay-As-You-Go Public Pension Systems: Two-sided Altruism and Endogenous Growth," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-13, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcp:journl:v:4:y:2020:i:8:p:218-223. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr. Pawan Verma (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.