How the global perspective can help us identify structural shocks
AbstractThis paper argues that global perspective can help us with the identification of structural shocks by utilizing the information on the signs of the responses of individual countries (cross section units). We demonstrate the main idea by means of Monte Carlo experiments and present an empirical application where we look at the effects of oil supply shocks on output and on global exchange rate constellation. Using a large-scale GVAR model of oil prices and the global economy, we find supply shocks tend to have a stronger impact on emerging economies' real output as compared with mature economies, have a negative impact on real growth in oil-exporting economies as well, and tend to cause an appreciation (depreciation) of oil exporters' (oil importers') real exchange rates but also lead to an appreciation of the U.S. dollar. This paper also illustrates some pitfalls with the existing measures to summarize the available information on structural shocks identified using sign restrictions when the dimension of the model is large (as it is in the case of global models).
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its journal Staff Papers.
Volume (Year): (2012)
Issue (Month): Dec ()
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Matthieu Bussière & Alexander Chudik & Giulia Sestieri, 2012.
"Modelling global trade flows: results from a GVAR model,"
Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper
119, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Bussière, Matthieu & Chudik, Alexander & Sestieri, Giulia, 2009. "Modelling global trade flows: results from a GVAR model," Working Paper Series 1087, European Central Bank.
- Fabio Canova & Joaquim Pires Pina, 1998.
"Monetary policy misspecification in VAR models,"
Economics Working Papers
420, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 1999.
- Chudik, Alexander & Fidora, Michael, 2011. "Using the global dimension to identify shocks with sign restrictions," Working Paper Series 1318, European Central Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Delia Rodriguez).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.