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House prices and stock prices: Different roles in the U.S. monetary transmission mechanism

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  • Hilde C. Bjørnland

    ()

  • Dag Henning Jacobsen

    ()

Abstract

We analyze the role of house and stock prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the U.S. using a structural VAR model. The VAR is identifed using a combination of short-run and long-run (neutrality) restrictions, allowing for contemporaneous interaction between monetary policy and asset prices. By allowing the interest rate and asset prices to react simultaneously to news, we find different roles for house and stock prices in the monetary transmission mechanism. In particular, following a contractionary monetary policy shock, stock prices fall immediately, while the response in house prices is much more gradual. However, the fall in both house prices and stock prices enhances the negative response in output and inflation that has traditionally been found in the literature. Regarding the systematic response in monetary policy, stock prices play a more important role in the interest rate setting in the short run than house prices. As a consequence, shocks to house prices contribute more to GDP and inflation fluctuations than stock price shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School in its series Working Papers with number 0006.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bny:wpaper:0006

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Keywords: VAR; monetary policy; house prices; identification;

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  1. Karl E. Case & John M. Quigley & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1335, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Chowdhury, Ibrahim & Hoffmann, Mathias & Schabert, Andreas, 2006. "Inflation dynamics and the cost channel of monetary transmission," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 995-1016, May.
  3. Bagliano, Fabio-Cesare & Favero, Carlo A, 1997. "Measuring Monetary Policy with VAR Models: An Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1997. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern97-1, May.
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