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Are bank lending shocks important for economic fluctuations?

Author

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  • Jørn Inge Halvorsen

    (Norges Bank and Norwegian School of Management (BI))

  • Dag Henning Jacobsen

    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

Abstract

We analyze the importance of bank lending shocks on real activity in Norway and the UK, using structural VARs and based on quarterly data for the past 21 years. The VARs are identified using a combination of sign and short-term zero restrictions, allowing for simultaneous interaction between various variables. We find that a negative bank lending shock causes output to contract. The significance of bank lending shocks seems evident as they explain a substantial share of output gap variability. This suggests that the banking sector is an important source of shocks. The empirical analysis comprises the Norwegian banking crisis (1988-1993) and the recent period of banking failures and recession in the UK. The results are clearly non-negligible also when omitting periods of systemic banking distress from the sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Jørn Inge Halvorsen & Dag Henning Jacobsen, 2009. "Are bank lending shocks important for economic fluctuations?," Working Paper 2009/27, Norges Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2009_27
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Bálint Tamási & Balázs Világi, 2011. "Identification of credit supply shocks in a Bayesian SVAR model of the Hungarian economy," MNB Working Papers 2011/7, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    4. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Falagiarda, Matteo, 2014. "Credit supply dynamics and economic activity in euro area countries: a time-varying parameter VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 1714, European Central Bank.
    5. Kim Abildgren, 2012. "Financial structures and the real effects of credit-supply shocks in Denmark 1922-2011," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 16(4), pages 490-510, November.
    6. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Falagiarda, Matteo, 2015. "The macroeconomic impact of financial fragmentation in the euro area: Which role for credit supply?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 93-115.
    7. Masao Kumamoto & Juanjuan Zhuo, 2017. "Bank Lending Channel in Transmission of Monetary Policy in Japan, 2000¨C2012: The Sign Restrictions VAR Approach," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 87-100, March.
    8. Milcheva, Stanimira, 2013. "A bank lending channel or a credit supply shock?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 314-332.
    9. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2013. "Credit Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 4281, CESifo.

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    Keywords

    Identification; VAR; Monetary Policy; Bank lending.;
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