IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/2495.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

VAR Models as Structural Approximations

Author

Listed:
  • Ray C. Fair

Abstract

This paper presents a way of estimating how accurate VAR models are likely to be for answering structural questions. Data are generated from a dynamic deterministic solution of a structural model; a VAR model is estimated using a subset of these data; and the properties of the VAR model are compared to the properties of the structural model. This procedure has the advantage of eliminating the effects of error terms, since the data are generated from a deterministic simulation. The results show that the VAR models do not seem to be good structural approximations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair, 1988. "VAR Models as Structural Approximations," NBER Working Papers 2495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2495
    Note: EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2495.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Tollison & William Mitchell & S. Roy, 1984. "Reviews," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 103-112, January.
    2. Ray C. Fair & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Econometric Modeling as Information Aggregation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 833R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 1988.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 107-164.
    6. Fair, Ray C, 1980. "Estimating the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1381-1391, September.
    7. Robert B. Litterman, 1979. "Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions," Working Papers 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    8. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maite Alguacil & Ana Cuadros & Vicente Orts, 2004. "Does saving really matter for growth? Mexico (1970-2000)," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 281-290.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Duo Qin, 2006. "VAR Modelling Approach and Cowles Commission Heritage," Working Papers 557, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Alessio Moneta, 2005. "Causality in macroeconometrics: some considerations about reductionism and realism," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 433-453.
    3. Defina, Robert H. & Stark, Thomas C. & Taylor, Herbert E., 1996. "The long-run variance of output and inflation under alternative monetary policy rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 235-251.
    4. Monticello, Carlo & Tristani, Oreste, 1999. "What does the single monetary policy do? A SVAR benchmark for the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 2, European Central Bank.
    5. Monticello, Carlo & Tristani, Oreste, 1999. "What does the single monetary policy do? A SVAR benchmark for the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 0002, European Central Bank.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    7. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October.
    8. Gossé, Jean-Baptiste & Guillaumin, Cyriac, 2013. "L’apport de la représentation VAR de Christopher A. Sims à la science économique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(4), pages 309-319, Décembre.
    9. Kenneth F. Wallis & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs, 2005. "Comparing SVARs and SEMs: two models of the UK economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 209-228.
    10. Ireland, Peter N., 2004. "A method for taking models to the data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1205-1226, March.
    11. Marek Rusnak & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2013. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 37-70, February.
    12. Catherine Bruneau & Olivier De Bandt, 1999. "La modélisation Var "structurel" : application à la politique monétaire en France," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 137(1), pages 67-94.
    13. Etsuro Shioji, 1997. "Spanish monetary policy: A structural VAR analysis," Economics Working Papers 215, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    14. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    15. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    16. Peter Englund & Anders Vredin, 1990. "The current account, supply shocks and accommodative fiscal policy : interpretations of Swedish post-war data," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 89-107, Autumn.
    17. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 1998. "Monetary policy and the term structure of nominal interest rates: Evidence and theory," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 53-111, December.
    18. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Theory And Practice Of Gvar Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 165-197, February.
    19. Morakinyo Akinola & Muller Colette & Sibanda Mabutho, 2018. "Non-Performing Loans, Banking System and Macroeconomy," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 63(2), pages 67-86, August.
    20. Jardet, C. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2009. "New Information Response Functions," Working papers 235, Banque de France.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2495. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.