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Forecasting inflation in France

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  • Célérier, C.
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    Abstract

    The paper develops a model for forecasting inflation in France. As this model has to be integrated in the Eurosystem projection exercises, the projections are conditional to specific assumptions and must be consistent with the Macroeconomic projection exercise of the Banque de France. The specification of the model is thus highly constrained. The theoretical foundations of the model are based on the markup model for prices, but the resulting empirical model also has elements relating to the purchasing power parity and the Phillips curve. The model aggregates forecasts of the main HICP subcomponents. We show that the model exhibits better performance than a standard AR(4) model.

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    File URL: http://www.banque-france.fr/uploads/tx_bdfdocumentstravail/DT262.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 262.

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    Length: 45 pages
    Date of creation: 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:262

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
    Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
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    Related research

    Keywords: Inflation ; Out-of-sample forecast ; Economic modelling.;

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    References

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    1. Marianne Bertrand & Francis Kramarz, 2002. "Does Entry Regulation Hinder Job Creation? Evidence From The French Retail Industry," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1369-1413, November.
    2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    3. Hubrich, Kirstin, 2003. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Working Paper Series 0247, European Central Bank.
    4. Marie-Laure Allain & Claire Chambolle, 2007. "Loss leaders banning laws as vertical restraints," Post-Print hal-00242935, HAL.
    5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. P. Biscourp & X. Boutin & T. Vergé, 2008. "The Effects of Retail Regulations on Prices Evidence form the Loi Galland," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2008-02, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
    7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    8. Fernandez, Roque B, 1981. "A Methodological Note on the Estimation of Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 471-76, August.
    9. Robert B. Litterman, 1983. "A random walk, Markov model for the distribution of time series," Staff Report 84, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    10. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 1999. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," International Finance Discussion Papers 655, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Askenazy, Philippe & Weidenfeld, Katia, 2007. "Les soldes de la loi Raffarin. Le contrôle du grand commerce alimentaire," Opuscules du CEPREMAP, CEPREMAP, number 07.
    12. Bruneau, C. & De Bandt, O. & Flageollet, A. & Michaux, E., 2003. "Forecasting Inflation using Economic Indicators: the Case of France," Working papers 101, Banque de France.
    13. Duarte, Claudia & Rua, Antonio, 2007. "Forecasting inflation through a bottom-up approach: How bottom is bottom?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 941-953, November.
    14. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
    15. Erik Britton & Jens D J Larsen & Ian Small, 2000. "Imperfect competition and the dynamics of mark-ups," Bank of England working papers 110, Bank of England.
    16. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
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