Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Forecasting inflation in France

Contents:

Author Info

  • Célérier, C.
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The paper develops a model for forecasting inflation in France. As this model has to be integrated in the Eurosystem projection exercises, the projections are conditional to specific assumptions and must be consistent with the Macroeconomic projection exercise of the Banque de France. The specification of the model is thus highly constrained. The theoretical foundations of the model are based on the markup model for prices, but the resulting empirical model also has elements relating to the purchasing power parity and the Phillips curve. The model aggregates forecasts of the main HICP subcomponents. We show that the model exhibits better performance than a standard AR(4) model.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.banque-france.fr/uploads/tx_bdfdocumentstravail/DT262.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 262.

    as in new window
    Length: 45 pages
    Date of creation: 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:262

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
    Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: Inflation ; Out-of-sample forecast ; Economic modelling.;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Hubrich, Kirstin, 2003. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Working Paper Series 0247, European Central Bank.
    2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    3. Erik Britton & Jens D J Larsen & Ian Small, 2000. "Imperfect competition and the dynamics of mark-ups," Bank of England working papers 110, Bank of England.
    4. Askenazy, Philippe & Weidenfeld, Katia, 2007. "Les soldes de la loi Raffarin. Le contrôle du grand commerce alimentaire," Opuscules du CEPREMAP, CEPREMAP, number 07, September.
    5. Bertrand, Marianne & Kramarz, Francis, 2001. "Does Entry Regulation Hinder Job Creation? Evidence from the French Retail Industry," CEPR Discussion Papers 3039, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, October.
    7. Fernandez, Roque B, 1981. "A Methodological Note on the Estimation of Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 471-76, August.
    8. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2000. "Distributions of Error Correction Tests for Cointegration," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0561, Econometric Society.
    9. Bruneau, C. & De Bandt, O. & Flageollet, A. & Michaux, E., 2003. "Forecasting Inflation using Economic Indicators: the Case of France," Working papers 101, Banque de France.
    10. Allain Marie-Laure & Chambolle Claire, 2005. "Loss-Leaders Banning Laws as Vertical Restraints," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-25, February.
    11. Pierre Biscourp & Xavier Boutin & Thibaud Vergé, 2013. "The effects of Retail Regulations on Prices : Evidence from the Loi Galland," Working Papers 2013-49, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
    12. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    14. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
    15. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    16. Duarte, Claudia & Rua, Antonio, 2007. "Forecasting inflation through a bottom-up approach: How bottom is bottom?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 941-953, November.
    17. Robert B. Litterman, 1983. "A random walk, Markov model for the distribution of time series," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 84, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:262. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael brassart).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.