Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Factor-augmented Error Correction Models

Contents:

Author Info

  • Anindya Banerjee
  • Massimiliano Marcellino

Abstract

This paper brings together several important strands of the econometrics literature: errorcorrection, cointegration and dynamic factor models. It introduces the Factor-augmented Error Correction Model (FECM), where the factors estimated from a large set of variables in levels are jointly modelled with a few key economic variables of interest. With respect to the standard ECM, the FECM protects, at least in part, from omitted variable bias and the dependence of cointegration analysis on the specific limited set of variables under analysis. It may also be in some cases a refinement of the standard Dynamic Factor Model (DFM), since it allows us to include the error correction terms into the equations, and by allowing for cointegration prevent the errors from being non-invertible moving average processes. In addition, the FECM is a natural generalization of factor augmented VARs (FAVAR) considered by Bernanke, Boivin and Eliasz (2005) inter alia, which are specified in first differences and are therefore misspecified in the presence of cointegration. The FECM has a vast range of applicability. A set of Monte Carlo experiments and two detailed empirical examples highlight its merits in finite samples relative to standard ECM and FAVAR models. The analysis is conducted primarily within an in-sample framework, although the out-of-sample implications are also explored.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: ftp://ftp.igier.uni-bocconi.it/wp/2008/335.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University in its series Working Papers with number 335.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:335

Contact details of provider:
Postal: via Rontgen, 1 - 20136 Milano (Italy)
Phone: 0039-02-58363301
Fax: 0039-02-58363302
Web page: http://www.igier.unibocconi.it/

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.igier.unibocconi.it/en/papers/index.htm

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2003. "Macroeconomics and the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 206, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Bai, Jushan, 2004. "Estimating cross-section common stochastic trends in nonstationary panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 137-183, September.
  3. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
  4. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 519, Boston College Department of Economics.
  5. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," NBER Working Papers 10220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  7. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
  8. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 2509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
  10. Hendry, David F., 2006. "Robustifying forecasts from equilibrium-correction systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 399-426.
  11. Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D.F., 1992. "Forecasting in Cointegrated Systems," Economics Series Working Papers 99139, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  12. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  13. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Breitung, J rg & Das, Samarjit, 2008. "Testing For Unit Roots In Panels With A Factor Structure," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(01), pages 88-108, February.
  15. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  16. Jushan Bai & Chihwa Kao & Serena Ng, 2007. "Panel Cointegration with Global Stochastic Trends," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 90, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  17. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
  18. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  19. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
  20. Carlo Ambrogio Favero & Massimilano Marcellino & Francesca Neglia, . "Principal components at work: The empirical analysis of monetary policy with large datasets," Working Papers 223, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  21. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2004. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach," NBER Working Papers 10616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Banerjee, A. & Marcellino, M. & Osbat, C., 2000. "Some Cautions on the Use of Panel Methods for Integrated Series of Macro-economic Data," Economics Working Papers eco2000/20, European University Institute.
  24. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller & Josine Uwilingiye, 2011. "Using Large Data Sets to Forecast Sectoral Employment," Working Papers 201101, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  2. Dedu, Vasile & Stoica, Tiberiu, 2014. "The Impact of Monetaru Policy on the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 71-86, June.
  3. Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2010. "Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: a large BVAR for New Zealand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 537-558, October.
  4. Claudio Morana, 2010. "Heteroskedastic Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 36-2010, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  5. Lombardi, Marco J. & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2010. "Global commodity cycles and linkages a FAVAR approach," Working Paper Series 1170, European Central Bank.
  6. Smith, Ron P. & Zoega, Gylfi, 2008. "Global Factors, Unemployment Adjustment and the Natural Rate," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2(22), pages 1-29.
  7. Giovanni MELINA & Stefania VILLA, 2012. "Fiscal policy and lending relationships," Center for Economic Studies - Discussion papers ces12.06, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiƫn.
  8. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2010. "Forecasting with Factor-augmented Error Correction Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7677, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2010. "Forecasting with Factor-augmented Error Correction," Discussion Papers 09-06r, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  10. Buss, Ginters, 2010. "A note on GDP now-/forecasting with dynamic versus static factor models along a business cycle," MPRA Paper 22147, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:335. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.