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Panel Error Correction Testing with Global Stochastic Trends

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  • Gengenbach, Christian
  • Urbain, Jean-Pierre
  • Westerlund, Joakim

    (METEOR)

Abstract

This paper considers a cointegrated panel data model with common factors. Starting from the triangular representation of the model as used by Bai et al. (2008) a Granger type representation theorem is derived. The conditional error correction representation is obtained, which is used as a basis for developing two new tests for the null hypothesis of noerror correction. The asymptotic distributions of the tests are shown to be free of nuisanceparameters, depending only on the number of non-stationary variables. However, the tests are not cross-sectionally independent, which makes pooling difficult. Nevertheless, the averages of the tests converge in distribution. This makes pooling possible in spite of the cross-sectional dependence. We investigate the nite sample performance of the proposed tests in a Monte Carlo experiment and compare them to the tests proposed by Westerlund (2007). We also present two empirical applications of the new tests.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR) in its series Research Memorandum with number 051.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:unm:umamet:2008051

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Keywords: econometrics;

References

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  1. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 519, Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
  3. Pesavento, Elena, 2004. "Analytical evaluation of the power of tests for the absence of cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 349-384, October.
  4. Rolf Larsson & Johan Lyhagen & Mickael Lothgren, 2001. "Likelihood-based cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 41.
  5. Palm, Franz C. & Smeekes, Stephan & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "A Sieve Bootstrap Test for Cointegration in a Conditional Error Correction Model," Research Memorandum 054, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  6. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
  7. Jong Eun Lee, 2002. "On the Characterisation of the World Real Interest Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 247-255, 02.
  8. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  9. Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001. "Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February.
  10. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  11. Peter C. B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1057-1112, September.
  12. Joakim Westerlund, 2008. "Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 193-233.
  13. Urbain, J-P., 1991. "On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models," Papers 9103, Liege - Centre de Recherches Economiques et Demographiques.
  14. Peter Boswijk, H., 1994. "Testing for an unstable root in conditional and structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 37-60, July.
  15. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1988. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 1," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(03), pages 468-497, December.
  16. Cappuccio, Nunzio & Lubian, Diego, 1996. "Triangular Representation and Error Correction Mechanism in Cointegrated Systems," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(2), pages 409-15, May.
  17. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
  18. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
  19. Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Working Papers 2005:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  20. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2004. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: a closer look at panels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 867-895, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Dreger, Christian & Herzer, Dierk, 2011. "A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis," Discussion Papers 305, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  2. In Choi, 2013. "Panel Cointegration," Working Papers 1208, Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University.
  3. Dierk Herzer , Peter Nunnenkamp, 2012. "Private Donations, Government Grants, Commercial Activities, and Fundraising: Cointegration and Causality for NGOs in International Development Cooperation," Kiel Working Papers 1769, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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