The Robust Causal Relationships Among Domestic Tourism Demand, Carbon Emissions, and Economic Growth in China

Green and low-carbon development has become a compelling trend of our time. To formulate policies for development and also reduction of carbon emissions, quantifying the trend of tourism in green sustainable development is an essential issue for China, which is undergoing an economic transformation. This study first measured China’s domestic tourism carbon emissions through a bottom-up approach and then used the robust Granger causality test on annual data from 1993 to 2019 to investigate the relationships among China’s domestic tourism revenue, carbon emissions, and economic growth. The empirical results show that: (1) Carbon emissions of the domestic tourism industry are growing steadily, and the carbon emissions of the transportation industry determine the trend of the total carbon emissions of the domestic tourism industry, (2) long-term equilibrium relationships exist among China’s domestic tourism, carbon emissions, and economic growth, and (3) bidirectional causal relationships among economic growth, carbon emissions, and domestic tourism revenue have been detected with the robust Granger causality test, and the time-varying causal relationships may change markedly in these times of significant events and policy changes. Therefore, policymakers should coordinate the relationships among domestic tourism revenue, carbon emissions, and economic growth, in an effort to promote the development of sustainable tourism in China.