We use a structural model estimated by the Kalman filter in order to extract the common cycle for different groups of OECD countries. We try to evaluate to what extent the Euro zone common cycle is affected by the inclusion of the UK into the group. An important result of this work is that adding the UK to the Euro group does not lead to a greater heterogeneity of the group as a whole. Besides, the UK business cycle is not much different from Euro zone cycles. Another point is that the influence of the UK on the `Euro plus UK' common cycle is less obvious for output than for consumption, public expenditures or investment series. This suggests the importance of taking into account the components of output when analysing business cycles.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number
2004-17.
Find related papers by JEL classification: E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: