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Energy prices and CO2 emission allowance prices: A quantile regression approach

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  • Shawkat Hammoudeh

    ()
    (Drexel University, LeBow College of Business)

  • Amine Lahiani

    ()
    (University of Orléans and ESC Rennes Business School)

  • Duc Khuong Nguyen

    ()
    (IPAG Business School)

  • Ricardo M. Sousa

    ()
    (Universidade do Minho - NIPE)

Abstract

We use a quantile regression framework to investigate the impact of changes in crude oil prices, natural gas prices, coal prices, and electricity prices on the distribution of the CO2 emission allowance prices in the United States. We find that: (i) an increase in the crude oil price generates a substantial drop in the carbon prices when the latter is very high; (ii) changes in the natural gas prices have a negative effect on the carbon prices when they are very low but have a positive effect when they are quite high; (iii) the impact of the changes in the electricity prices on the carbon prices can be positive in the right tail of the distribution; and (iv) the coal prices exert a negative effect on the carbon prices.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 06/2014.

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Date of creation: 2014
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:06/2014

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Keywords: CO2 allowance price; energy prices; quantile regression.;

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  1. Hintermann, Beat, 2010. "Allowance price drivers in the first phase of the EU ETS," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-56, January.
  2. V. Chernozhukov & C. Hansen, 2013. "Quantile Models with Endogeneity," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 57-81, 05.
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  5. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
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  7. Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2002. "Inference on the Quantile Regression Process," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1583-1612, July.
  8. Chevallier, Julien, 2010. "A note on cointegrating and vector autoregressive relationships between CO2 allowances spot and futures prices," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/4237, Paris Dauphine University.
  9. Daskalakis, George & Psychoyios, Dimitris & Markellos, Raphael N., 2009. "Modeling CO2 emission allowance prices and derivatives: Evidence from the European trading scheme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1230-1241, July.
  10. Machado, Jose A. F. & Silva, J. M. C. Santos, 2000. "Glejser's test revisited," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 189-202, July.
  11. Chevallier, Julien, 2010. "Modelling risk premia in CO2 allowances spot and futures prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 717-729, May.
  12. Kim, Hyun Seok & Koo, Won W., 2010. "Factors affecting the carbon allowance market in the US," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1879-1884, April.
  13. Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
  14. Chevallier, Julien, 2012. "Time-varying correlations in oil, gas and CO2 prices: an application using BEKK, CCC, and DCC-MGARCH models," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6790, Paris Dauphine University.
  15. Arouri, Mohamed El Hédi & Jawadi, Fredj & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Nonlinearities in carbon spot-futures price relationships during Phase II of the EU ETS," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 884-892.
  16. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521608275.
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