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Panel Cointegration Tests of the Fisher Effect

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  • Westerlund, Joakim

    (METEOR)

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    Abstract

    Most empirical evidence suggest that the Fisher effect, stating that inflation and nominal interest rates should cointegrate with a unit slope on inflation, does not hold, a finding at odds with many theoretical models. This paper argues that these results can be attributed in part to the low power of univariate tests, and that the use of panel data can generate more powerful tests. For this purpose, we propose two new panel cointegration tests that can be applied under very general conditions, and that are shown by simulation to be more powerful than other existing tests. These tests are applied to a panel of quarterly data covering 20 OECD countries between 1980 and 2004. The evidence suggest that the Fisher effect cannot be rejected once the panel evidence on cointegration has been taken into account.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR) in its series Research Memorandum with number 054.

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    Date of creation: 2006
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    Handle: RePEc:unm:umamet:2006054

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    Keywords: econometrics;

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