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New Improved Tests for Cointegration with Structural Breaks

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Author Info

  • Westerlund, Joakim

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Lund University)

  • Edgerton , David

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Lund University)

Abstract

This paper proposes Lagrange multiplier based tests for the null hypothesis of no cointegration. The tests are general enough to allow for heteroskedastic and serially correlated errors, deterministic trends, and a structural break of unknown timing in both the intercept and slope. The limiting distributions of the test statistics are derived, and are found to be invariant not only with respect to trend and structural break, but also with respect to the regressors. A small Monte Carlo study is also con- ducted to investigate the small-sample properties of the tests. The results reveal that the tests have small size distortions and good power relative to other tests.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Lund University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2006:3.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 14 Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Time Series Analysis, 2007, pages 188-224.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2006_003

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund,Sweden
Phone: +46 +46 222 0000
Fax: +46 +46 2224613
Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/en
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Related research

Keywords: Cointegration Test; Lagrange Multiplier Principle; Structural Break; Deterministic Trend.;

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References

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  1. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  2. Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  3. Haug, A.A., 1992. "Tests for Cointegration: A Monte Carlo Comparison," Papers 93-2, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
  4. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Andreu Sansó, 2005. "Testing the Null of Cointegration with Structural Breaks," DEA Working Papers 10, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
  5. Lee, J. & Schmidt, P., 1991. "A Modification of the Schmidt-Phillips Unit Root Test," Papers 9001, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  6. Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C, 2001. " Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections with Endogenous Unit Root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(5), pages 535-58, December.
  7. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
  8. Jushan Bai, 1995. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Working papers 95-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  9. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  10. Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  11. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:315-52 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Fabio Busetti & Andrew C Harvey, 1998. "Testing for the Presence of a Random Walk in Series with Structural Breaks - (Now published in Journal of Time Series Analysis, 22 (2001), pp.127-150.)," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /1998/365, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  13. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-87, August.
  14. Amsler, Christine & Lee, Junsoo, 1995. "An LM Test for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Structural Change," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 359-368, February.
  15. Nunes, Luis C & Newbold, Paul & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 1997. "Testing for Unit Roots with Breaks: Evidence on the Great Crash and the Unit Root Hypothesis Reconsidered," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 435-48, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Richard Crump & Gopi Shah Goda & Kevin J. Mumford, 2011. "Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1616-28, June.
  2. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," PSE Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
  3. Westerlund, Joakim, 2006. "Panel Cointegration Tests of the Fisher Effect," Research Memorandum 054, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  4. Joakim Westerlund, 2008. "Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 193-233.
  5. Westerlund, Joakim, 2013. "Simple unit root testing in generally trending data with an application to precious metal prices in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 12-27.
  6. Maki, Daiki, 2012. "Tests for cointegration allowing for an unknown number of breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 2011-2015.
  7. Westerlund, Joakim & Edgerton, David, 2006. "Simple Tests for Cointegration in Dependent Panels with Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2006:13, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 28 Jan 2007.
  8. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00564897 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Yasemin Barlas Ozer & Kam-Ki Tang, . "An Empirical Analysis of Financial and Housing Wealth Effects on Consumption in Turkey," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2809, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  10. Westerlund, Joakim, 2009. "Testing for Unit Roots in Panel Time Series Models with Multiple Breaks," Working Papers in Economics 384, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  11. Cortes, Maria, 2007. "Examining Patterns of Bilateral Trade between Australia and Colombia by Using Cointegration Analysis and Error-Correction Models," Economics Working Papers wp07-20, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.

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