IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/joares/v54y2016i3p895-937.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Real Activity Forecasts Using Loan Portfolio Information

Author

Listed:
  • UROOJ KHAN
  • N. BUGRA OZEL

Abstract

To extend and monitor loans, banks collect detailed and proprietary information about the financial prospects of their customers, many of whom are local businesses and households. Therefore, banks’ loan portfolios contain potentially useful information about local economic conditions. We investigate the association between information in loan portfolios and local economic conditions. Using a sample of U.S. commercial banks from 1990:Q1 to 2013:Q4, we document that information in loan portfolios aggregated to the state level is associated with current and future changes in statewide economic conditions. Furthermore, the provision for loan and lease losses contains information incremental to leading indicators of state‐level economic activity and recessions. Loan portfolio information also helps to improve predictions of economic conditions at more granular levels, such as at the commuting zone level. We discuss the relevance of these findings for economic analysis and forecasting, and the relation of our study to prior work on the informativeness of accounting information about the macroeconomy.

Suggested Citation

  • Urooj Khan & N. Bugra Ozel, 2016. "Real Activity Forecasts Using Loan Portfolio Information," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 895-937, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:54:y:2016:i:3:p:895-937
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-679X.12110
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-679X.12110
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1475-679X.12110?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bartik, Timothy J, 1985. "Business Location Decisions in the United States: Estimates of the Effects of Unionization, Taxes, and Other Characteristics of States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(1), pages 14-22, January.
    2. Robert M. Adams & Kenneth P. Brevoort & Elizabeth K. Kiser, 2007. "Who Competes With Whom? The Case Of Depository Institutions," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 141-167, March.
    3. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
    4. Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2003. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much, too late?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 178-197, April.
    5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stoc93-1, March.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    7. Driscoll, John C., 2004. "Does bank lending affect output? Evidence from the U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 451-471, April.
    8. Michael Minnis & Andrew Sutherland, 2017. "Financial Statements as Monitoring Mechanisms: Evidence from Small Commercial Loans," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 197-233, March.
    9. Konchitchki, Yaniv & Patatoukas, Panos N., 2014. "Accounting earnings and gross domestic product," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 76-88.
    10. Nicola Cetorelli & Philip E. Strahan, 2006. "Finance as a Barrier to Entry: Bank Competition and Industry Structure in Local U.S. Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 437-461, February.
    11. Andrew Hertzberg & Jose Maria Liberti & Daniel Paravisini, 2010. "Information and Incentives Inside the Firm: Evidence from Loan Officer Rotation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(3), pages 795-828, June.
    12. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance, entrepreneurship and growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 513-542, December.
    13. Loretta J. Mester & Leonard I. Nakamura & Micheline Renault, 2007. "Transactions Accounts and Loan Monitoring," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 529-556.
    14. Lars Norden & Martin Weber, 2010. "Credit Line Usage, Checking Account Activity, and Default Risk of Bank Borrowers," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(10), pages 3665-3699, October.
    15. Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009. "Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
    16. Samolyk, Katherine A., 1994. "Banking conditions and regional economic performance evidence of a regional credit channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 259-278, October.
    17. Gary C. Cornia & Ray D. Nelson, 2010. "State tax revenue growth and volatility," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Oct, pages 23-58.
    18. Andrew P. Meyer & Timothy J. Yeager, 2001. "Are small rural banks vulnerable to local economic downturns?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Mar), pages 25-38.
    19. Udell, Gregory F., 1989. "Loan quality, commercial loan review and loan officer contracting," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 367-382, July.
    20. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
    21. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W. (ed.), 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226774886, December.
    22. J. G. Tokle & Wallace E. Huffman, 1991. "Local Economic Conditions and Wage Labor Decisions of Farm and Rural Nonfarm Couples," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(3), pages 652-670.
    23. Aboody, David & Hughes, John S. & Bugra Ozel, N., 2014. "Corporate bond returns and the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 42-53.
    24. Katherine A. Samolyk, 1991. "A regional perspective on the credit view," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 27(Q II), pages 27-38.
    25. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    26. Atif Mian & Kamalesh Rao & Amir Sufi, 2013. "Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the Economic Slump," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1687-1726.
    27. Beaver, W & Eger, C & Ryan, S & Wolfson, M, 1989. "Financial-Reporting, Supplemental Disclosures, And Bank Share Prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 157-178.
    28. Ang, Andrew & Longstaff, Francis A., 2013. "Systemic sovereign credit risk: Lessons from the U.S. and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 493-510.
    29. Allen N. Berger & Gregory F. Udell, 2002. "Small Business Credit Availability and Relationship Lending: The Importance of Bank Organisational Structure," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(477), pages 32-53, February.
    30. Cole, Rebel A., 1998. "The importance of relationships to the availability of credit," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6-8), pages 959-977, August.
    31. Ray C. Fair, 1993. "Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 157-178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Xanthi Gkougkousi, 2014. "Aggregate Earnings and Corporate Bond Markets," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 75-106, March.
    33. Beatty, A & Chamberlain, Sl & Magliolo, J, 1995. "Managing Financial Reports Of Commercial-Banks - The Influence Of Taxes, Regulatory Capital, And Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 231-261.
    34. Tolbert, Charles M. & Sizer, Molly, 1996. "U.S. Commuting Zones and Labor Market Areas: A 1990 Update," Staff Reports 278812, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    35. Donald Morgan & Adam Ashcraft, 2003. "Using Loan Rates to Measure and Regulate Bank Risk: Findings and an Immodest Proposal," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 24(2), pages 181-200, October.
    36. Lakshmanan Shivakumar, 2010. "Discussion of Aggregate Market Reaction to Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 335-342, May.
    37. Massa, Massimo & Yasuda, Ayako & Zhang, Lei, 2013. "Supply uncertainty of the bond investor base and the leverage of the firm," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 185-214.
    38. Shivakumar, Lakshmanan, 2007. "Aggregate earnings, stock market returns and macroeconomic activity: A discussion of `does earnings guidance affect market returns? The nature and information content of aggregate earnings guidance'," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 64-73, September.
    39. Massa, Massimo & Zhang, Lei, 2013. "Monetary policy and regional availability of debt financing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 439-458.
    40. Elizabeth Laderman & Ronald H. Schmidt & Gary C. Zimmerman, 1991. "Location, branching, and bank portfolio diversification: the case of agricultural lending," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Win, pages 24-38.
    41. Kim, Myung-Sun & Kross, William, 1998. "The impact of the 1989 change in bank capital standards on loan loss provisions and loan write-offs," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 69-99, February.
    42. Lakshmi Balasubramanyan & James B. Thomson & Saeed Zaman, 2013. "Are banks forward-looking in their loan loss provisioning? Evidence from the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS)," Working Papers (Old Series) 1313, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    43. Sumit Agarwal, 2010. "Distance and Private Information in Lending," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(7), pages 2757-2788, July.
    44. Taft Foster & Vanessa Haleco-Meyer & Richard H. Mattoon, 2010. "Improving the impact of federal aid to the states," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 34(Q III), pages 66-82.
    45. Theodore M. Crone & Alan Clayton-Matthews, 2005. "Consistent Economic Indexes for the 50 States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 593-603, November.
    46. Petersen, Mitchell A & Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "The Benefits of Lending Relationships: Evidence from Small Business Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 3-37, March.
    47. Beatty, Anne & Liao, Scott, 2011. "Do delays in expected loss recognition affect banks' willingness to lend?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-20, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2019. "What drives discretion in bank lending? Some evidence and a link to private information," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 323-340.
    2. Sehwa Kim & Seil Kim & Anya V. Kleymenova & Rongchen Li, 2023. "Current Expected Credit Losses (CECL) Standard and Banks' Information Production," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Binz, Oliver & Mayew, William J. & Nallareddy, Suresh, 2022. "Firms’ response to macroeconomic estimation errors," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2).
    4. Spokeviciute, Laima & Keasey, Kevin & Vallascas, Francesco, 2019. "Do financial crises cleanse the banking industry? Evidence from US commercial bank exits," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 222-236.
    5. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2018. "Private information and lender discretion across time and institutions," Research Discussion Papers 17/2018, Bank of Finland.
    6. Jaewoo Kim & Bryce Schonberger & Charles Wasley & Hunter Land, 2020. "Intertemporal variation in the information content of aggregate earnings and its effect on the aggregate earnings-return relation," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 1410-1443, December.
    7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Sehwa Kim, 2022. "Delays in Banks’ Loan Loss Provisioning and Economic Downturns: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 711-754, June.
    9. Eduardo Minuci & Scott Schuh, 2022. "Are West Virginia Banks Unique?," Working Papers 22-03, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    10. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2018. "Private information and lender discretion across time and institutions," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2018, Bank of Finland.
    11. Tomy, Rimmy E., 2019. "Threat of entry and the use of discretion in banks’ financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-35.
    12. Stephanie F. Cheng, 2021. "The Information Externality of Public Firms’ Financial Information in the State‐Bond Secondary Market," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 529-574, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Uchida, Hirofumi & Udell, Gregory F. & Yamori, Nobuyoshi, 2012. "Loan officers and relationship lending to SMEs," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 97-122.
    2. Djedidi-Kooli, Salima, 2009. "L’accès au financement des PME en France : quel rôle joué par la structure du système bancaire ?," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/8354 edited by Etner, François.
    3. Santikian, Lori, 2014. "The ties that bind: Bank relationships and small business lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-213.
    4. Senay Agca & Pablo Slutzky & Stefan Zeume, 2021. "Anti-Money Laundering Enforcement, Banks, and the Real Economy," Working Papers 2021-20, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    5. Gropp, R. & Grundl, C. & Guttler, A., 2012. "Does Discretion in Lending Increase Bank Risk? Borrower Self-Selection and Loan Officer Capture Effects," Other publications TiSEM bfec5360-2a2b-47e4-ba3f-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Cerqueiro, Geraldo & Degryse, Hans & Ongena, Steven, 2011. "Rules versus discretion in loan rate setting," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 503-529, October.
    7. Allen N. Berger & Christa H. S. Bouwman & Lars Norden & Raluca A. Roman & Gregory F. Udell & Teng Wang, 2021. "Piercing Through Opacity: Relationships and Credit Card Lending to Consumers and Small Businesses During Normal Times and the COVID-19 Crisis," Working Papers 21-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    8. Campbell, Dennis & Loumioti, Maria & Wittenberg-Moerman, Regina, 2019. "Making sense of soft information: interpretation bias and loan quality," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2).
    9. Durguner, Sena, 2017. "Do borrower-lender relationships still matter for small business loans?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 98-118.
    10. Maik Dierkes & Carsten Erner & Thomas Langer & Lars Norden, 2012. "Business credit information sharing and default risk of private firms," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 64, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    11. Dierkes, Maik & Erner, Carsten & Langer, Thomas & Norden, Lars, 2013. "Business credit information sharing and default risk of private firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2867-2878.
    12. Jens Grunert & Lars Norden, 2012. "Bargaining power and information in SME lending," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 401-417, September.
    13. Norden, L., 2015. "The Role of Banks in SME Finance," ERIM Inaugural Address Series Research in Management EIA-2015-062-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam..
    14. John Gallemore & Martin Jacob, 2020. "Corporate Tax Enforcement Externalities and the Banking Sector," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(5), pages 1117-1159, December.
    15. repec:hal:journl:hal-00952641 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Costello, Anna M. & Down, Andrea K. & Mehta, Mihir N., 2020. "Machine + man: A field experiment on the role of discretion in augmenting AI-based lending models," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    17. Kerr, William R. & Nanda, Ramana, 2009. "Democratizing entry: Banking deregulations, financing constraints, and entrepreneurship," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 124-149, October.
    18. Kirschenmann, K., 2010. "The Dynamics in Requested and Granted Loan Terms when Bank and Borrower Interact Repeatedly," Other publications TiSEM 40d5005c-1626-4511-aa8a-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Modina, Michele & Pietrovito, Filomena & Gallucci, Carmen & Formisano, Vincenzo, 2023. "Predicting SMEs’ default risk: Evidence from bank-firm relationship data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 254-268.
    20. Bertrand, Jérémie & Burietz, Aurore, 2023. "(Loan) price and (loan officer) prejudice," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 26-42.
    21. Michalski, Tomasz & Ors, Evren, 2012. "(Interstate) Banking and (interstate) trade: Does real integration follow financial integration?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 89-117.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:54:y:2016:i:3:p:895-937. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0021-8456 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.