Corporate bond returns and the financial crisis
AbstractWe examine effects of government actions and related accounting policies on the corporate bond market implied by changes in relations between aggregate bond returns and cash flow and discount rate news. We capture the influence of risk by partitioning bonds into investment and speculative grades. We use earnings changes as a proxy for cash flow news and T-Bill rate changes as a proxy for discount rate news. As expected, during non-crisis periods, we observe a positive relation between earnings changes and bond returns and a negative relation for T-Bill rate changes. A combination of government bailouts of large financial institutions and mark-to-market accounting preserves the positive relation for earnings changes during the crisis for investment grade bonds, while absence of these factors leads to an insignificant relation for speculative grade. Intervention by the Federal Reserve to induce lower interest rates as earnings were declining, a flight to safety shifting demand from corporate bonds to T-Bills, and low cost funds invested in risk free investments explain a reversal of the relation between bond returns and T-Bill rate changes for both grades.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.
Volume (Year): 40 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf
Financial crisis; Corporate bond returns; Cash flow news; Discount rate news; Government relief; Fair value accounting;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting - - Accounting - - - Accounting
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Laux, Christian & Leuz, Christian, 2009.
"Did fair-value accounting contribute to the financial crisis?,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2009/22, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Christian Laux & Christian Leuz, 2010. "Did Fair-Value Accounting Contribute to the Financial Crisis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 93-118, Winter.
- Christian Laux & Christian Leuz, 2009. "Did Fair-Value Accounting Contribute to the Financial Crisis?," NBER Working Papers 15515, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gara Afonso & Anna Kovner & Antoinette Schoar, 2010.
"Stressed, not frozen: the Federal Funds market in the financial crisis,"
437, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Gara Afonso & Anna Kovner & Antoinette Schoar, 2011. "Stressed, Not Frozen: The Federal Funds Market in the Financial Crisis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1109-1139, 08.
- Peter D. Easton & Steven J. Monahan & Florin P. Vasvari, 2009. "Initial Evidence on the Role of Accounting Earnings in the Bond Market," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 721-766, 06.
- Dick-Nielsen, Jens & Feldhütter, Peter & Lando, David, 2012. "Corporate bond liquidity before and after the onset of the subprime crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 471-492.
- Campbell, John Y, 1991.
"A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-79, March.
- Kothari, S.P. & Lewellen, Jonathan & Warner, Jerold B., 2006. "Stock returns, aggregate earnings surprises, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 537-568, March.
- Acharya, Viral V. & Amihud, Yakov & Bharath, Sreedhar T., 2013. "Liquidity risk of corporate bond returns: conditional approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 358-386.
- Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993.
" What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
- John Y. Campbell & John Ammer, 1991. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 3760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Campbell and Ammer's JOF 1993 paper," Statistical Software Components RTZ00029, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Ammer, John & Campbell, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Scholarly Articles 3382857, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Ammer, J., 1991. "What Moves The Stock And Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition For Long- Term Asset Returns," Papers 127, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
- DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Skinner, Douglas J., 2004. "Are dividends disappearing? Dividend concentration and the consolidation of earnings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 425-456, June.
- Nippani, Srinivas & Smith, Stanley D., 2010. "The increasing default risk of US Treasury securities due to the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2472-2480, October.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2001.
"Disappearing dividends: changing firm characteristics or lower propensity to pay?,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 3-43, April.
- Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2001. "Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics Or Lower Propensity To Pay?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 14(1), pages 67-79.
- Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, . "Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics or Lower Propensity to Pay?."," CRSP working papers 509, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Longstaff, Francis A., 2010. "The subprime credit crisis and contagion in financial markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 436-450, September.
- Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "What Drives Firm-Level Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 233-264, 02.
- Bhat, Gauri & Frankel, Richard & Martin, Xiumin, 2011. "Panacea, Pandora's box, or placebo: Feedback in bank mortgage-backed security holdings and fair value accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 153-173.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.