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Explaining Returns with Cash-Flow Proxies

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Author Info
Peter Hecht
Tuomo Vuolteenaho
Abstract

Stock returns are correlated with contemporaneous earnings growth, dividend growth, future real activity, and other cash-flow proxies. The correlation between cash-flow proxies and stock returns may arise from association of cash-flow proxies with one-period expected returns, cash-flow news, and/or expected-return news. We use Campbell's (1991) return decomposition to measure the relative importance of these three effects in regressions of returns on cash-flow proxies. In some of the popular specifications, variables that are motivated as proxies for cash-flow news also track a nontrivial proportion of one-period expected returns and expected-return news. As a result, the R2 from a regression of returns on cash-flow proxies may overstate or understate the importance of cash-flow news as a source of return variance.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11169.

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Date of creation: Mar 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11169

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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  1. Randolph B. Cohen & Paul A. Gompers & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "Who Underreacts to Cash-Flow News? Evidence from Trading between Individuals and Institutions," NBER Working Papers 8793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Haugen, Robert A. & Baker, Nardin L., 1996. "Commonality in the determinants of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 401-439, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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