The Fed’s perceived Phillips curve: Evidence from individual FOMC forecasts
AbstractThis note uncovers the Phillips curve trade-off perceived by U.S. monetary policymakers. For that purpose we use data on individual forecasts for unemployment and inflation submitted by each individual FOMC member, which was recently made available for the period 1992-1998. The results point to significant changes in the perceived trade-off over time with the Phillips curve flattening and the implied NAIRU falling towards the second half of the sample. Hence, the results suggest that policymakers were aware of these changes in real-time.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 200946.
Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
inflation forecast; NAIRU; Phillips curve; monetary policy; Federal Reserve;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-11-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-11-27 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2009-11-27 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2009-11-27 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2009-11-27 (Monetary Economics)
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