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Which Predictor is the Best to Predict Inflation in Europe: the Real Money-gap or a Nominal Money Based Indicator?

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Author Info
Gilles Dufrénot
Roselyne Joyeux () (Department of Economics, Macquarie University)
Anne Péguin-Feissolle

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Abstract

In the literature, two important views concerning the conduct of monetary policy are construed. One view is that the central banks’ monetary policy must be credible if the authorities want to curb inflation. A second view is that central banks set their monetary policy by using all the information relevant for inflation and output projections. In Europe, a controversy has emerged about the role of monetary aggregates as useful indicators of future inflation and output. On one hand, evidence in favour of the usefulness of nominal monetary aggregates as good predictors is provided by the literature. On the other hand, empirical evidence in favour of real money indicators is found. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the ongoing debate on the role of money aggregates in the setting of monetary policy. The question we are interested in is whether the real money gap contains more information about future inflation in Europe, than an indicator based on the growth rate of nominal money. We use a panel data framework instead of the usual time series methods on aggregate Euro data.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Macquarie University, Department of Economics in its series Research Papers with number 0606.

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Length: 29 pages.
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mac:wpaper:0606

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Postal: Sydney NSW 2109
Web page: http://www.econ.mq.edu.au/
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Related research
Keywords: monetary policy; inflation; panel data;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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