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Is a recession imminent?

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  • John Fernald
  • Bharat Trehan

Abstract

The sharp slowdown in housing and the inverted yield curve have led to concerns that the odds of a recession have risen. For instance, Dow Jones Newswire reported on November 2 that one model based on the yield curve put the probability of a recession over the next four quarters at more than 50%. This Letter presents and discusses various estimates of the probability of recession. Our review of the evidence suggests two conclusions: First, recessions appear difficult to predict; second, while the probability of a recession over the next year may now be somewhat elevated, it does not appear to be nearly as high as the yield curve suggests.

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File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2006/el2006-32.html
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File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2006/el2006-32.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal FRBSF Economic Letter.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): nov24 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2006:i:nov24:n:2006-32

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Keywords: Recessions ; Economic forecasting;

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  1. Michael J. Dueker, 2003. "Dynamic forecasts of qualitative variables: a Qual VAR model of U.S. recessions," Working Papers 2001-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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