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The Case of the Reappearing Phillips Curve: A Discussion of Recent Findings

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  • Asha Bharadwaj
  • Maximiliano Dvorkin

Abstract

The Phillips curve seems to have flattened over time. In this article, we use a simple New Keynesian model to analyze potential pitfalls in the estimation of the slope of the structural Phillips curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Asha Bharadwaj & Maximiliano Dvorkin, 2020. "The Case of the Reappearing Phillips Curve: A Discussion of Recent Findings," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 102(3), pages 313-337, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:88595
    DOI: 10.20955/r.102.313-37
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
    2. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
    4. Blanchard, Oliver & Cerutti, Eugenio & SUmmers, Lawrence, 2015. "Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications," Working Paper Series 15-070, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    5. John M. Roberts, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
    6. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-984, November.
    7. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 25(Win), pages 2-11.
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    Cited by:

    1. Johannes Schuffels & Clemens Kool & Lenard Lieb & Tom van Veen, 2022. "Is the Slope of the Euro Area Phillips Curve Steeper than It Seems? Heterogeneity and Identification," CESifo Working Paper Series 10103, CESifo.
    2. Sara Boni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2022. "A Structural Analysis of Unemployment-Generating Supply Shocks with an Application to the US Pharmaceutical Industry," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS94, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies

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