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The Political Relation and Trade - The Case of US, China and Australia

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  • Yifei Cai
  • Jamel Saadaoui
  • Yanrui Wu

Abstract

This paper employs structural vector autoregression and local projection methods to examine the impacts of the deterioration in US-China political relations on Australia-China bilateral trade. By imposing a recursive identification scheme with different assumptions, the empirical results illustrate that worsening US-China political relations have a negative impact on Australian exports to and imports from China. Under a time-varying structural vector autoregression model, it is found that the deterioration in US-China political relations augments the negative impacts on Australia-China bilateral trade during the Trump’s administration. The empirical findings provide insightful policy suggestions to both Australian and Chinese governments.

Suggested Citation

  • Yifei Cai & Jamel Saadaoui & Yanrui Wu, 2022. "The Political Relation and Trade - The Case of US, China and Australia," Working Papers of BETA 2022-22, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2022-22
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural vector autoregression; Local projection; Impulse response; US-China political relation; Australia-China trade.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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