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Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market

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  • Yifei Cai
  • Valérie Mignon
  • Jamel Saadaoui

Abstract

This paper assesses the effects of US-China political tensions on the oil market. Relying on a quantitative measure of these relationships, we investigate how their dynamics impact oil demand, supply, and prices over various periods, starting from 1971 to 2019. To this end, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model as well as local projections and show that political tensions between the two countries pull down oil demand and raise supply at medium- and long-run horizons. Overall, our findings show that conflicting relationships between these two major players in the oil market may have crucial impacts, such as the development of new strategic partnerships.

Suggested Citation

  • Yifei Cai & Valérie Mignon & Jamel Saadaoui, 2022. "Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market," Working Papers 2022-07, CEPII research center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2022-07
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    Cited by:

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    3. Cai, Yifei & Chang, Hao-Wen & Chang, Tsangyao, 2023. "Evaluating time-varying granger causality between US-China political relation changes and China stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    4. António Afonso & Valérie Mignon & Jamel Saadaoui, 2023. "On the Time-Varying Impact of China’s Bilateral Political Relations on Its Trading Partners: “Doux Commerce” or “Trade Follows the Flag”?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10814, CESifo.
    5. Francisco Serranito & Philipp RODERWEIS & Jamel Saadaoui, 2023. "Is Quantitative Easing Productive? The Role of Bank Lending in the Monetary Transmission Process," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-17, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    6. Philipp Roderweis & Jamel Saadaoui & Francisco Serranito, 2023. "The Unintended Consequences of ECB’s Asset Purchases. How Excess Reserves Shape Bank Lending," Working Papers of BETA 2023-34, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Oil market; Political relations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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