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Long Run Risks in the Term Structure of Interest Rates : Estimation

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  • Taeyoung Doh

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)

Abstract

This paper estimates a long run risk model with term structure data. Inflation and consumption growth both contain correlated long run risk components. The model is estimated by the likelihood-based Bayesian methods and estimates of the latent long run risk factors are extracted from both macro and term structure data. Empirical analysis using US data reveals that a small and persistent component in consumption growth interacting with expected inflation improves the model's fit for the term structure data.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2008 Meeting Papers with number 137.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed008:137

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  1. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  2. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 2002. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 69-87, January.
  3. Jes�s Fern�ndez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ram�rez, 2007. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(4), pages 1059-1087.
  4. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2000. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," NBER Working Papers 8059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Giorgio Primiceri & Alejandro Justiniano, 2006. "The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," 2006 Meeting Papers 353, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Ruslan Bikbov & Mikhail Chernov, 2010. "No-arbitrage macroeconomic determinants of the yield curve," Post-Print peer-00732517, HAL.
  8. Luca Benati, 2008. "The "Great Moderation" in the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 121-147, 02.
  9. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Trend and cycle in bond premia," Staff Report 424, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
  11. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
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Cited by:
  1. Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Hao Zhou, 2011. "Short Run Bond Risk Premia," FMG Discussion Papers dp686, Financial Markets Group.
  2. Startz, Richard & Tsang, Kwok Ping, 2012. "Nonexponential Discounting: A Direct Test And Perhaps A New Puzzle," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt8pw4h6vk, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  3. Stefano D'Addona & Frode Brevik, 2011. "Rational Ignorance In Long-Run Risk Models," Working Papers 0811, CREI Università degli Studi Roma Tre, revised 2011.
  4. Anh Le & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2010. "An Equilibrium Term Structure Model with Recursive Preferences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 557-61, May.

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