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Taylor rules with headline inflation: a bad idea

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Rajeev Dhawan
Karsten Jeske

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Abstract

Should a central bank accommodate energy price shocks? Should the central bank use core inflation or headline inflation with the volatile energy component in its Taylor rule? To answer these questions, we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with energy use, durable goods, and nominal rigidities to study the effects of an energy price shock and its impact on the macroeconomy when the central bank follows a Taylor rule. We then study how the economy performs under alternative parameterizations of the rule with different weights on headline and core inflation after an increase in the energy price. Our simulation results indicate that a central bank using core inflation in its Taylor rule does better than one using headline inflation because the output drop is less severe. In general, we show that the lower the weight on energy price inflation in the Taylor rule, the impact of an energy price increase on gross domestic product and inflation is also lower.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2007-14.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2007-14

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  1. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst & Fabio Ghironi, 2002. "Does It Matter (for Equilibrium Determinacy) What Price Index the Central Bank Targets?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 533, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 07 Feb 2003. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Erceg, Christopher & Levin, Andrew, 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with durable consumption goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1341-1359, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Collard, Fabrice & Juillard, Michel, 2001. "Accuracy of stochastic perturbation methods: The case of asset pricing models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 979-999, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kevin X.D. Huang & Zheng Liu & Louis Phaneuf, 2003. "Why Does the Cyclical Behavior of Real Wages Change Over Time?," Emory Economics 0309, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2001. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Working Papers 01-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
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  9. Robert Barsky & Christopher L. House & Miles Kimball, 2005. "Sticky Price Models and Durable Goods," Macroeconomics 0501031, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2006. "Co-movement in sticky price models with durable goods," Working Paper 0614, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  11. Kevin X. D. Huang & Zheng Liu, 2004. "Inflation targeting: what inflation rate to target?," Working Papers 04-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Bernanke, Ben S & Gertler, Mark & Watson, Mark W, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 287-91, April.
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  14. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske, 2006. "Energy price shocks and the macroeconomy: the role of consumer durables," Working Paper 2006-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Susanto Basu & John Fernald, 2000. "Why is productivity procyclical? Why do we care?," Working Paper Series WP-00-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Zha, Tao, 1999. "Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 291-316, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Federico di Pace, 2008. "Revisiting the Comovement Puzzle: the Input-Output Structure as an Additional Solution," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0807, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Duval, Romain & Vogel, Lukas, 2007. "How do nominal and real rigidities interact? A tale of the second best," MPRA Paper 7282, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Anna Kormilitsina, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and the Optimality of Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 0901, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Martin Bodenstein & Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy with distinct core and headline inflation rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 941, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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