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Inflation targeting: what inflation rate to target?

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Author Info
Kevin X. D. Huang
Zheng Liu

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Abstract

In an economy with nominal rigidities in both an intermediate good sector and a finished good sector, and thus with a natural distinction between CPI and PPI inflation rates, a benevolent central bank faces a tradeoff between stabilizing the two measures of inflation: a final output gap, and unique to our model, a real marginal cost gap in the intermediate sector, so that optimal monetary policy is second-best. We discuss how to implement the optimal policy with minimal information requirement and evaluate the robustness of these simple rules when the central bank may not know the exact sources of shocks or nominal rigidities. A main finding is that a simple hybrid rule under which the short-term interest rate responds to CPI inflation and PPI inflation results in a welfare level close to the optimum, whereas policy rules that ignore PPI inflation or PPI sector shocks can result in significant welfare losses.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 04-6.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:04-6

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance)

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 1-35, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 2001. "The case for price stability," Working Paper 01-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Taylor, John B., 1999. "Staggered price and wage setting in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 1009-1050 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jordi Gali & J. David Lopez-Salido & Javier Valles, 2002. "Technology Shocks and Monetary Policy: Assessing the Fed's Performance," NBER Working Papers 8768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Kevin X.D. Huang & Zheng Liu & Louis Phaneuf, 2002. "Why does the cyclical behavior of real wages change over time?," Research Working Paper RWP 02-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2002. "A Simple Framework for International Monetary Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 8870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Huang, Kevin X. D. & Liu, Zheng, 2001. "Production chains and general equilibrium aggregate dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 437-462, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Todd E. Clark, 1999. "The Responses Of Prices At Different Stages Of Production To Monetary Policy Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 420-433, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "Nominal income targeting in an open-economy optimizing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 553-578, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2002. "Openness: imperfect exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 128, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Amato, Jeffery D. & Laubach, Thomas, 2003. "Estimation and control of an optimization-based model with sticky prices and wages," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1181-1215, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Juan Manuel Julio & Héctor Manuel Zárate, . "The Price Setting Behavior in Colombia: Evidence from PPI Micro Data," Borradores de Economia 483, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Engin Kara, 2006. "Optimal monetary policy in the generalized Taylor economy," Working Paper Series 673, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Evi Pappa & Zheng Liu, 2005. "Gains from International Monetary Policy Coordination: Does It Pay to Be Different?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 457, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Monetary Policy Under Inflation Targeting: An Introduction," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 396, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske, 2007. "Taylor rules with headline inflation: a bad idea," Working Paper 2007-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  6. Zheng Liu & Evi Pappa, . "Gains from Coordination in a Multi-Sector Open Economy: Does it Pay to be Different?," Working Papers 296, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Andrén, Niclas & Oxelheim, Lars, 2006. "Producer Prices in the Transition to a Common Currency," Working Paper Series 668, Research Institute of Industrial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Eva Ortega & Nooman Rebei, 2006. "The Welfare Implications of Inflation versus Price-Level Targeting in a Two-Sector, Small Open Economy," Working Papers 06-12, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  9. William Whitesell, 2005. "An inflation goal with multiple reference measures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. Louis Phaneuf & Nooman Rebei, 2007. "Technology Shocks and Business Cycles: The Role of Processing Stages and Nominal Rigidities," Working Papers 07-7, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  11. Louis Phaneuf & Nooman Rebei, 2008. "Production Stages and the Transmission of Technological Progress," Cahiers de recherche 0802, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
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