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Energy Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Consumer Durables

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  • RAJEEV DHAWAN
  • KARSTEN JESKE

Abstract

We create a model with a distinction between investment in consumer durables and capital goods, as well as energy use by households and firms, to evaluate the importance of energy price shocks for output fluctuations. Simulation results indicate that this economy has a smaller proportion of output fluctuations attributable to energy price shocks than one without durable goods and household energy use. We show that an energy price hike is absorbed by reducing investment in durables more than in fixed capital. This rebalancing effect cushions the hit to future production. Thus, productivity shocks remain the prime driver for output fluctuations. Copyright (c) 2008 The Ohio State University.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 40 (2008)
Issue (Month): 7 (October)
Pages: 1357-1377

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:40:y:2008:i:7:p:1357-1377

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  1. Hamilton, James D, 1988. "A Neoclassical Model of Unemployment and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 593-617, June.
  2. Peter Rupert & Richard Rogerson & Randall Wright, 1994. "Estimating substitution elasticities in household production models," Staff Report 186, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith, 2004. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 781-808, May.
  4. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2007. "Why Does Household Investment Lead Business Investment over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 141-168.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Ogaki, Masao, 1995. "Measuring intertemporal substitution: The role of durable goods," MPRA Paper 13690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Nadenichek, Jon, 1999. "Consumer durable goods in an international real business cycle framework," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 233-247.
  7. Collard, Fabrice & Juillard, Michel, 1999. "Accuracy of stochastic perturbuation methods: the case of asset pricing models," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9922, CEPREMAP.
  8. Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-86, April.
  9. Karsten Jeske & Dirk Krueger, 2005. "Housing and the macroeconomy: the role of implicit guarantees for government-sponsored enterprises," Working Paper 2005-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  10. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Krueger, Dirk, 2011. "Consumption And Saving Over The Life Cycle: How Important Are Consumer Durables?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(05), pages 725-770, November.
  11. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 5634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Vipin Arora & Pedro Gomis-Porqueras, 2011. "A Repayment Model of House Prices Oil Price Dynamics in a Real Business Cycle Model," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 11-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  2. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
  3. Millard, Stephen, 2011. "An estimated DSGE model of energy, costs and inflation in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 432, Bank of England.
  4. Jaime Casassus & Freddy Higuera, 2011. "Stock Return Predictability and Oil Prices," Documentos de Trabajo 406, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  5. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske & Pedro Silos, 2010. "Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 715-724, July.
  6. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske, 2007. "Taylor rules with headline inflation: a bad idea," Working Paper 2007-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  7. Dhawan, Rajeev & Jeske, Karsten, 2008. "What determines the output drop after an energy price increase: Household or firm energy share?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 202-205, December.
  8. Jaime Casassus & Freddy Higuera, 2013. "The Economic Impact of Oil on Industry Portfolios," Documentos de Trabajo 433, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  9. Rizvanoghlu, Islam, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomy: The Role for Precautionary Demand and Storage," MPRA Paper 42351, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jun 2012.

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