Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Forecasting the Fragility of the Banking and Insurance Sector

Contents:

Author Info

  • Kerstin Bernoth
  • Andreas Pick

Abstract

This paper considers the issue of forecasting financial fragility of banks and insurances using a panel data set of performance indicators, namely distance-to- default, taking unobserved common factors into account. We show that common factors are important in the performance of banks and insurances, analyze the influences of a number of observable factors on banking and insurance performance, and evaluate the forecasts from our model. We find that taking unobserved common factors into account reduces the the root mean square forecasts error of firm specific forecasts by up to 11% and of system forecasts by up to 29% relative to a model based only on observed variables. Estimates of the factor loadings suggest that the correlation of financial institutions has been relatively stable over the forecast period.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.97596.de/dp882.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 882.

as in new window
Length: 27 p.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp882

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Mohrenstraße 58, D-10117 Berlin
Phone: xx49-30-89789-0
Fax: xx49-30-89789-200
Email:
Web page: http://www.diw.de/en
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Financial stability; financial linkages; banking; insurances; unobserved common factors; forecasting;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2009. "Bank Competition and International Financial Integration:Evidence Using a New Index," Working Papers 242009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  2. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
  3. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2008. "Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Asquith, Paul & Mullins, David W, Jr, 1983. "The Impact of Initiating Dividend Payments on Shareholders' Wealth," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(1), pages 77-96, January.
  5. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Jonas Dovern & Carsten-Patrick Meier & Johannes Vilsmeier, 2008. "How Resilient is the German Banking System to Macroeconomic Shocks?," Kiel Working Papers 1419, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Arnaud Jobert & Janet Kong & Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2004. "An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/33, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
  10. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the effects of monetary policy: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  12. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2002. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-38, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  13. Uhde, André & Heimeshoff, Ulrich, 2009. "Consolidation in banking and financial stability in Europe: empirical evidence," IWQW Discussion Paper Series 02/2009, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Quantitative Wirtschaftsforschung (IWQW).
  14. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2009. "Rejoinder to comments on forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 703-715, October.
  15. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & L. Vanessa Smith, 2008. "Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs," Staff Reports 317, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  16. Q. Farooq Akram & Øyvind Eitrheim, 2006. "Flexible inflation targeting and financial stability: Is it enough to stabilise inflation and output?," Working Paper 2006/07, Norges Bank.
  17. Jürgen Von Hagen & Tai-Kuang Ho, 2007. "Money Market Pressure and the Determinants of Banking Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1037-1066, 08.
  18. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
  19. Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2004. "General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels," IZA Discussion Papers 1240, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  20. Breusch, T.S. & Pagan, A.R., . "The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics," CORE Discussion Papers RP -412, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  21. Jan Frederik Slijkerman & Dirk Schoenmaker & Casper de Vries, 2005. "Risk Diversification by European Financial Conglomerates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-110/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  22. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2009. "The identification of technology regimes in banking: Implications for the market power-fragility nexus," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1413-1422, August.
  23. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
  24. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  25. Hali J. Edison, 2000. "Do indicators of financial crises work? an evaluation of an early warning system," International Finance Discussion Papers 675, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  26. M. Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick, 2004. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Contagion," CESifo Working Paper Series 1176, CESifo Group Munich.
  27. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  28. Allen, Franklin & Carletti, Elena, 2006. "Credit risk transfer and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 89-111, January.
  29. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 0035, European Central Bank.
  30. Jacob A. Bikker & Haixia Hu, 2002. "Cyclical patterns in profits, provisioning and lending of banks and procyclicality of the new Basel capital requirements," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(221), pages 143-175.
  31. Roni Michaely & Richard H. Thaler & Kent Womack, 1994. "Price Reactions to Dividend Initiations and Omissions: Overreaction or Drift?," NBER Working Papers 4778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Toni Gravelle, 2005. "The End," IMF Working Papers 05/231, International Monetary Fund.
  33. Gropp, Reint & Moerman, Gerard, 2004. "Measurement of contagion in banks' equity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 405-459, April.
  34. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2007. "Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 845-868, March.
  35. De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Forecasting Using a Large Number of Predictors: Is Bayesian Regression a Valid Alternative to Principal Components?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  36. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
  37. Gary Gorton, 1986. "Banking panics and business cycles," Working Papers 86-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  38. Marco Stringa & Allan Monks, 2007. "Inter-industry contagion between UK life insurers and UK banks: an event study," Bank of England working papers 325, Bank of England.
  39. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  40. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
  41. Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, 04.
  42. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
  43. Kumar, Mohan & Moorthy, Uma & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Predicting emerging market currency crashes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-454, September.
  44. Amer Demirovic & Dylan Thomas, 2007. "The Relevance of Accounting Data in the Measurement of Credit Risk," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 253-268.
  45. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Martín Saldías, 2011. "Sectoral credit risk in the euro area," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  2. Wenzel, Lars & Wolf, André, 2013. "Short-term forecasting with business surveys: Evidence for German IHK data at federal state level," HWWI Research Papers 140, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  3. Martín Saldías, 2011. "A Market-based Approach to Sector Risk Determinants and Transmission in the Euro Area," Working Papers w201130, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  4. Vallascas, Francesco & Keasey, Kevin, 2012. "Bank resilience to systemic shocks and the stability of banking systems: Small is beautiful," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1745-1776.
  5. M. Kabir Hassan & William J. Hippler III, 2013. "The Pronounced Impact of Macroeconomic Stress on the Financial Sector: Implications for Real Sector Growth," NFI Working Papers 2013-WP-01, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp882. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.