IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/soecon/v74y2007i2p524-545.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Credit Markets and the Propagation of Korea's 1997 Financial Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Peter L. Rousseau
  • Jong Hun Kim

Abstract

We consider the roles of monetary shocks and tightening credit market conditions in the transmission of South Korea's 1997 financial crisis to the real sector, and compare the relative impacts of these factors on production in light and heavy industries. Using structural regression equations, vector autoregressive models, and the accompanying dynamic forecasts, we find that the ratio of commercial bills dishonored to the total value of bills to be cleared can explain the decline in industrial production more fully than either the decline in the real stock of money or the spread between yields on corporate and government bonds. These results are most emphatic in light industry, for which small and medium‐sized firms account for more than 70% of the total value added. Since fluctuations in the dishonored bills ratio may reflect components related to increases in the cost of credit intermediation and its effect on small and medium‐sized firms more precisely than the corporate‐government bond spread, we interpret the evidence as suggestive of a credit channel and “flight to quality” at work.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter L. Rousseau & Jong Hun Kim, 2007. "Credit Markets and the Propagation of Korea's 1997 Financial Crisis," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(2), pages 524-545, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:74:y:2007:i:2:p:524-545
    DOI: 10.1002/j.2325-8012.2007.tb00851.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/j.2325-8012.2007.tb00851.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/j.2325-8012.2007.tb00851.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wei Ding & Domac, Ilker & Ferri, Giovanni, 1998. "Is there a credit crunch in East Asia?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1959, The World Bank.
    2. Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Swart R. Ghosh, 1999. "East Asia in the Aftermath: Was there a Crunch?," IMF Working Papers 1999/038, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    5. Borensztein, Eduardo & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2002. "Financial crisis and credit crunch in Korea: evidence from firm-level data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 853-875, May.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    7. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-439, May.
    8. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    9. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    10. Hayashi, Fumio & Inoue, Tohru, 1991. "The Relation between Firm Growth and Q with Multiple Capital Goods: Theory and Evidence from Panel Data on Japanese Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 731-753, May.
    11. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    12. Barro, Robert J, 1978. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 549-580, August.
    13. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    15. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica & Gupta, Poonam, 2006. "Inside the crisis: An empirical analysis of banking systems in distress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 702-718, August.
    2. Morakinyo Akinola & Muller Colette & Sibanda Mabutho, 2018. "Non-Performing Loans, Banking System and Macroeconomy," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 63(2), pages 67-86, August.
    3. Levintal, Oren, 2013. "The real effects of banking shocks: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 556-578.
    4. Gorton, Gary & Winton, Andrew, 2003. "Financial intermediation," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 431-552, Elsevier.
    5. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2005. "Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192, pages 68-83, April.
    6. Masahiro Enya & Akira Kohsaka, 2004. "Monetary Transmissions Immediately after the Crisis in East Asia," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 04-05, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    7. Campbell, Gareth & Coyle, Christopher & Turner, John D., 2016. "This time is different: Causes and consequences of British banking instability over the long run," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 74-94.
    8. Duca, John V., 2013. "Did the commercial paper funding facility prevent a Great Depression style money market meltdown?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 747-758.
    9. Jong‐Wha Lee & Changyong Rhee, 2002. "Macroeconomic Impacts of the Korean Financial Crisis: Comparison with the Cross‐country Patterns," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 539-562, April.
    10. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
    11. Paola Bongini & Stijn Claessens & Giovanni Ferri, 2001. "The Political Economy of Distress in East Asian Financial Institutions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 5-25, February.
    12. Sarah Sanya & Mr. Montfort Mlachila, 2010. "Post-Crisis Bank Behavior: Lessons From Mercosur," IMF Working Papers 2010/001, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Hoggarth, Glenn & Reis, Ricardo & Saporta, Victoria, 2002. "Costs of banking system instability: Some empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 825-855, May.
    14. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Detragiache, Enrica & Rajan, Raghuram, 2008. "The real effect of banking crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 89-112, January.
    15. Diamond, Douglas W. & Rajan, Raghuram G., 2001. "Banks, short-term debt and financial crises: theory, policy implications and applications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 37-71, June.
    16. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 6370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Alan M. Taylor, 2015. "Credit, Financial Stability, and the Macroeconomy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 309-339, August.
    18. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128.
    19. Takuji Kinkyo, 2004. "Transmission channels of capital flow shocks: why Korean crisis was so severe," Working Papers 139, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    20. Bordo, Michael D. & Dueker, Michael J. & Wheelock, David C., 2003. "Aggregate price shocks and financial stability: the United Kingdom 1796-1999," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 143-169, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:74:y:2007:i:2:p:524-545. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2325-8012 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.