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Does the Fed Control Interest Rates?

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  • Eugene F. Fama

Abstract

To what extent does TF, the target Federal funds rate set by the Fed, influence other rates? There is lots of variation in rates unrelated to TF, and any effects of TF on rates dissipate quickly for longer maturities. For short rates, all the tests have interpretations in terms of: (i) a Fed that has the power to control rates and uses it, and (ii) a Fed that has little power over rates or chooses not to exercise its power. In the end, there is no conclusive evidence (here or elsewhere) on the role of the Fed versus market forces in the long-term path of interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Eugene F. Fama, 2013. "Does the Fed Control Interest Rates?," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 180-199.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rasset:v:3:y:2013:i:2:p:180-199.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2015. "Monetary policy's time-varying impact on the US bond markets: Role of financial stress and risks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 103-123.
    3. Dr. Thomas Nitschka & Shajivan Satkurunathan, 2021. "Habits die hard: implications for bond and stock markets internationally," Working Papers 2021-08, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Hollander, Hylton & Christensen, Lars, 2022. "Monetary Regimes, Money Supply, And The Usa Business Cycle Since 1959: Implications For Monetary Policy Today," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(7), pages 1806-1832, October.
    5. Lassaâd Mbarek & Hardik A. Marfatia & Sonja Juko, 2018. "Time-varying Response of Treasury Yields to Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Tunisian Bond Market," Working Papers 1243, Economic Research Forum, revised 23 Oct 2018.
    6. Michelle L. Barnes, 2014. "Let's talk about it: what policy tools should the Fed \\"normally\\" use?," Current Policy Perspectives 14-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    7. Alexandros Kontonikas & Paulo Maio & Zivile Zekaite, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Corporate Bond Returns," Working Papers 2016_05, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    8. Cochrane, John H., 2014. "Monetary policy with interest on reserves," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 74-108.
    9. Zihui Yang & Yinggang Zhou, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Volatility Spillovers Across Countries and Asset Classes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(2), pages 333-354, February.
    10. Joseph E Stiglitz, 2018. "Where modern macroeconomics went wrong," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(1-2), pages 70-106.
    11. Bitros, George C., 2021. "Destabilizing asymmetries in central banking: With some enlightenment from money in classical Athens," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    12. Zihui Yang & Yinggang Zhou & Xin Cheng, 2020. "Systemic risk in global volatility spillover networks: Evidence from option‐implied volatility indices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 392-409, March.
    13. George C. Bitros, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Market Structure and the Income Shares in the U.S," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 383-413, April.
    14. Leombroni, Matteo & Vedolin, Andrea & Venter, Gyuri & Whelan, Paul, 2021. "Central bank communication and the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 860-880.
    15. Alexandros Kontonikas & Charles Nolan & Zivile Zekaite, 2015. "Always and Everywhere Inflation? Treasuries Variance Decomposition and the Impact of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2015_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    16. Bredemeier, Christian & Juessen, Falko & Schabert, Andreas, 2022. "Why are fiscal multipliers moderate even under monetary accommodation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
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    18. Christian Bredemeier & Falko Juessen & Andreas Schabert, 2021. "Why Are Fiscal Multipliers Moderate Even Under Monetary Accommodation?," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 074, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    19. Indriawan, Ivan & Jiao, Feng & Tse, Yiuman, 2021. "The SOFR and the Fed’s influence over market interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    20. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2017. "Circumventing the zero lower bound with monetary policy rules based on money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 42-58.
    21. Connolly, Robert & Dubofsky, David & Stivers, Chris, 2018. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the distant forward-rate slope," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 140-161.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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