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Fundamentals, regime shifts, and dollar behavior in the 1980s

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  • Giulio Cifarelli

Abstract

I provide an economic interpretation of the long swings of the dollar in the 1980s. I use the “fully modified†estimator method to analyze the long-run behavior of the dollar/sterling exchange rate over the period 1979–1989, detecting a structural shift in February–March 1985. In the 1979–1985 subperiod economic agents have reacted to a reduced set of fundamentals only, a finding that might corroborate the “irrational behavior†interpretation of the dollar upswing. In the 1985–1989 subperiod economic agents have associated the equilibrium value of the dollar with the behavior of a more balanced set of fundamentals. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1995

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 6 (1995)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 29-48

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:6:y:1995:i:1:p:29-48

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

Related research

Keywords: dollar behavior; regime shifts; cointegration analysis;

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  8. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
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  12. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
  13. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-48, August.
  14. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 321-35, July.
  15. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
  16. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
  17. Lewis, Karen K, 1989. "Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 621-36, September.
  18. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Athanasios Papadopoulos & Gregory Papanikos, . "Exchange Rates Regimes And The Linkage Between Money And Output In Greece," Working Papers 9605, University of Crete, Department of Economics.

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