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Simulating competing cointegration tests in a bivariate system

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  • Ralf Ostermark
  • Rune Hoglund
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    Abstract

    In this paper, we consider the size and power of a set of cointegration tests in a number of Monte Carlo simulations. The behaviour of the competing methods is investigated in diff erent situations, including diff erent levels of variance and correlation in the error processes. The impact of violations of the common factor restriction (CFR) implied by the Engle-Granger framework is studied in these situations. The reactions to changes in the CFR condition depend on the error correlation. When the correlation is non-positive, the power increases with increasing CFR violations for the error correction model (ECM) test, while the other tests react in the opposite direction. We also note the reaction to diff erences in the error variances in the data-generating process. For positive correlation and equal variances, the reaction to changes in the CFR violations diff ers somewhat between the tests. We conclude that the ECM and the Z-tests show the best performance over diff erent parameter combinations. In most situations the ECM is best. Therefore, if we had to recommend a unit root test, it would be the ECM, especially for small samples. However, we do not think that one should use just one test, but two or more. Of course, the portfolio of tests we have considered here only represents a subset of the possible tests.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02664769922070
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Applied Statistics.

    Volume (Year): 26 (1999)
    Issue (Month): 7 ()
    Pages: 831-846

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:26:y:1999:i:7:p:831-846

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    1. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    2. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    3. Kiviet, Jan F & Phillips, Garry D A, 1992. "Exact Similar Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 349-67, August.
    4. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-48, August.
    5. Haug, A.A., 1992. "Tests for Cointegration: A Monte Carlo Comparison," Papers 93-2, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
    6. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
    7. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    9. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    10. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
    11. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
    12. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    13. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
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