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Euro area exports and imports: Do determinants of intra- and extra-EMU trade differ?

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Author Info
Heike Joebges () (IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation)
Evelyn Herrmann () (IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation)
Abstract

The attempt is to explain EMU exports and imports, treating the euro area as one single economy. EMU trade is analysed separately for intra- and extra-EMU trade. One result of this approach is that extra- and intra-EMU trade seem to follow a different pattern. Therefore, a separate estimation seems preferable. This is especially true for exports. For imports, the mistake made seems to be smaller. Interestingly, the aggregate of intra- and extra-EMU trade seems to be dominated by the pattern of extra-EMU trade, although both sub-aggregates are of a similar size: Estimation equations for aggregate EMU exports are quite similar to those for extra-EMU exports and the equations for aggregate EMU imports resemble those for extra-EMU imports.

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Paper provided by IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute in its series IMK Working Paper with number 08-2008.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:8-2008

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  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. James MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 90-4, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ursel Baumann & Filippo di Mauro, 2007. "Globalisation and euro area trade: Interactions and challenges," Occasional Paper Series 55, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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