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Euro area exports and imports: Do determinants of intra- and extra-EMU trade differ?

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  • Heike Joebges

    ()
    (IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation)

  • Evelyn Herrmann

    ()
    (IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation)

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    Abstract

    The attempt is to explain EMU exports and imports, treating the euro area as one single economy. EMU trade is analysed separately for intra- and extra-EMU trade. One result of this approach is that extra- and intra-EMU trade seem to follow a different pattern. Therefore, a separate estimation seems preferable. This is especially true for exports. For imports, the mistake made seems to be smaller. Interestingly, the aggregate of intra- and extra-EMU trade seems to be dominated by the pattern of extra-EMU trade, although both sub-aggregates are of a similar size: Estimation equations for aggregate EMU exports are quite similar to those for extra-EMU exports and the equations for aggregate EMU imports resemble those for extra-EMU imports.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute in its series IMK Working Paper with number 08-2008.

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    Length: 35 pages
    Date of creation: 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:8-2008

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    1. Ursel Baumann & Filippo di Mauro, 2007. "Globalisation and euro area trade: Interactions and challenges," Occasional Paper Series 55, European Central Bank.
    2. Anderton, Robert & Baltagi, Badi H. & Skudelny, Frauke & Sousa, Nuno, 2005. "Intra- and extra-euro area import demand for manufactures," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0532, European Central Bank.
    3. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Schnatz, Bernd, 2007. "Explaining and forecasting euro area exports: which competitiveness indicator performs best?," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0833, European Central Bank.
    4. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
    5. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0042, European Central Bank.
    6. Anderton, Robert, 2003. "Extra-euro area manufacturing import prices and exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0219, European Central Bank.
    7. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    8. Sawyer, W. Charles & Sprinkle, Richard L., 1997. "The Demand for Imports and Exports in Japan: A Survey," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 247-259, June.
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